| 基于ETAS模型对青海地区余震预测效能评估的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 余娜,毕金孟,蒋长胜.基于ETAS模型对青海地区余震预测效能评估的研究[J].西北地震学报,2020,42(3):696-704. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余娜 毕金孟 蒋长胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海省地震局, 青海 西宁 810000;天津市地震局, 天津 300201;中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 2018年度震情跟踪定向任务（2018010116）和2019年度青海省地震科学基金（2019A02）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为系统评估青海地区余震短期发生率的预测效能,以及构建适合地震活动特点的余震早期预测策略和预测指标体系,利用国际上当前较为前沿的时间序列ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区2009年以来的8个地震的早期余震序列参数进行拟合,并利用N-test检验方法对预测结果进行回溯性的效能评估。研究表明:ETAS模型和"瘦化算法"对青海地区的余震发生率具有很好的预测能力,建议采用3天的预测时间窗,且对序列早期阶段进行应用,或可取得"最佳"的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震序列 ETAS模型 地震预测 N-test方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/8/8 0:00:00 |
Evaluation of the Forecasting Effectiveness of the Short-term AftershockOccurrence Rate and Forecasting Strategy in Qinghai Region |
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| YU N,BI Jinmeng,JIANG Changsheng.Evaluation of the Forecasting Effectiveness of the Short-term AftershockOccurrence Rate and Forecasting Strategy in Qinghai Region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2020,42(3):696-704. |
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| Authors: | YU N BI Jinmeng JIANG Changsheng |
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| Institution: | Qinghai Earthquake Agency, Xining 810000, Qinghai, China;Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China; Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | To evaluate the forecasting effectiveness of the occurrence rate of short-term aftershocks in the Qinghai region, and to construct an early aftershock forecasting strategy and forecast index system that reflects the regional seismic activity, we performed a continuous and sliding fitting of the sequence parameters of eight earthquakes that have occurred in the Qinghai area since 2009. To do so, we used the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and the ETAS-based thinning algorithm, and used the N-test method to evaluate the forecasting effectiveness. The prediction results show that the ETAS model and ETAS-based thinning algorithm have good forecasting ability regarding the aftershock occurrence rate in the Qinghai region. We found that the "best" forecasting result may be obtained using a 3-day forecasting time window and applying the algorithm in the early stage of the sequence. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake sequence epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model earthquake forecasting N-test method |
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