| 耗散理论在地震预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭增建,秦保燕.耗散理论在地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(2):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭增建 秦保燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局兰州地震研究所
(郭增建)，国家地震局兰州地震研究所(秦保燕) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在文献1]、2]的基础上,进一步应用耗散理论中的多重选择和岔区外敏概念来讨论地震预报问题。指出,在断层平面组合中,由于始裂点的位置不同,会导致后果的重大差异。在立交模式中,深部剪切蠕滑线在哪里发生有一定的随机性,即上部岩石圈中某一发震断层在某一时间内是否有深部剪切蠕滑线与其相交,具有随机选择的性质。关于岔区外敏问题,耗散理论认为,分岔点上外界因素对系统变成新态的途径选择具有很大影响。外界因素的作用会有利于某种途径的选择,特别在分岔点处这种选择的作用要显著放大。对于一个地震,在震源区处于不稳定状态时,外因对震源地方的调制和触发作用是很大的。如果外因的时间规律、空间规律和方向规律是已知的,则可对多重选择进行实际选择,使其可能性范围缩小,进而进行相对确定的地震预报。
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APPLICATION OF DISSIPATIVE THEORY IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| Guo Zengjian and Qin Baoyan.APPLICATION OF DISSIPATIVE THEORY IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1987,9(2):1-5. |
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| Authors: | Guo Zengjian and Qin Baoyan |
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| Institution: | Seismological Institute of Lanzhou, State Seismological Bureau and Seismological Institute of Lanzhou, State Seismological Bureau |
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| Abstract: | This paper use the multiple selection and the external sensitivity of bifurcation in the dissipative theory to discuss some problems of earthquake prediction.For the combinated faults, multiple selection is caused by the stohastivity of the beginning point of fracture. Besides, sometimes the earthquake process possibly become into chaostic. It means, there are some difficults for earthquake prediction. In order to comparatively definite predict earthquakes, we must study the interaction between the external factors and the earthquake source system. |
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