| 祁连山地震带小震活动增强指标提取与预报效能分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛冬瑶,张博,冯建刚.祁连山地震带小震活动增强指标提取与预报效能分析[J].西北地震学报,2020,42(5):1090-1095. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛冬瑶 张博 冯建刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省地震局, 甘肃 兰州 730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金（GZ201903） |
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| 摘 要： | 总结2015年以来、2010年以来和1980年以来祁连山地震带活动增强指标，得到祁连山地震带5年、10年以及40年尺度的小震频度预报效能。祁连山地震带ML2.0以上地震月频度持续增强的异常出现时间在3个月以上，异常出现后1~3个月，祁连山地震带及边邻地区发生5级以上地震以及青藏高原东北缘发生6级以上地震的概率较高。作为短期预报指标，祁连山地震带的地震活动增强对甘肃及边邻地区的地震预报工作具有重要的指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 祁连山地震带 地震活动性 频度增强 预报效能 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/7/10 0:00:00 |
Index Extraction and Prediction Efficiency Analysis of Small Earthquakes Enhancement in Qilianshan Seismic Zone |
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| MAO Dongyao,ZHANG Bo,FENG Jian'gang.Index Extraction and Prediction Efficiency Analysis of Small Earthquakes Enhancement in Qilianshan Seismic Zone[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2020,42(5):1090-1095. |
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| Authors: | MAO Dongyao ZHANG Bo FENG Jian'gang |
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| Institution: | Gansu Earthquake Agency, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China |
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| Abstract: | The activity enhancement indexes of the Qilian Mountain seismic zones for earthquake events in 2015, 2010, and 1980 are summarized in this paper. The paper shows a good correspondence between the earthquake activity enhancement and the occurrence of moderate-strong earthquakes in the study region. If the monthly frequency of ML2.0 earthquakes in the Qilian Mountain seismic zone is continuously enhanced for more than three months, the occurrence probabilities of earthquakes above M5 in the Qilian seismic zone and above M6 in the northeastern edge of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau are high in the first to third months after enhancement anomaly. As a short-term prediction index, the enhancement of seismicity in the Qilian Mountain seismic zone has a great significance for earthquake prediction in Gansu and its adjacent areas. |
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| Keywords: | Qilianshan seismic zone seismicity frequency enhancement prediction efficiency |
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