| 震后趋势决策支持系统PTDSS |
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| 引用本文： | 庄昆元,黄冰树,王炜,章纯.震后趋势决策支持系统PTDSS[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(4):404-409,411. |
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| 作者姓名： | 庄昆元 黄冰树 王炜 章纯 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海市地震局,
2. 上海材料研究所, |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了作者研制的“震后趋势决策支持系统PTDSS”的构成及预报效果,该系统使用模糊联想记忆FAM（Fuzzy Associative Menory)模型将神经网络与模糊系统结合起来,使之具有第2代专家系统的学习功能,系统知识库中除存有专家多年来总结的有关地震现场预报的知识外,还通过系统学习得到了一批十分有意义的,目前专家尚未总结的知识,震例检验的结果该系统有较好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 震后趋势决策 支持系统 模糊联想记忆模型 预报能力 数据处理 专家系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0844(2001)04-0404-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000/12/12 0:00:00 |
POST-EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM |
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| ZHUANG Kun-yuan,HUANG Bing-shu,WANG Wei and ZHANG Cun.POST-EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2001,23(4):404-409,411. |
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| Authors: | ZHUANG Kun-yuan HUANG Bing-shu WANG Wei and ZHANG Cun |
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| Institution: | ZHUANG Kun yuan 1,HUANG Bing shu 2,WANG Wei 1,ZHANG Cun 1 |
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| Abstract: | According to the requirement of "Instruction for Earthquake Situation Analysis at Site"(revised by Seismological Bureau of China), a system PTDSS (Post Earthquake Tendency Decision Support System) was built which combined with data processing, earthquake locating, expert system and database as one system. In this system, FAM(Fussy Associative Memory) model is used to make this system having function of self learning, the main characteristic of second generation expert system. In the knowledge base not only many experts' experiences are collected; but also many valuable new knowledge learnt by system itself is included which is meaningful for tendency decision making up and up to now it is still not summarized by prediction expert. The results of examination for earthquake cases show the system possesses good prediction ability. |
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| Keywords: | Post earthquake tendency decision Support system Fuzzy associative memory model Prediction ability |
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