| 河北省晋2井水位资料预报效能 |
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| 引用本文： | 张伏凯,李薇,刘硕,李增申,李军.河北省晋2井水位资料预报效能[J].华北地震科学,2011,29(2):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张伏凯 李薇 刘硕 李增申 李军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 辛集市地震局,河北,辛集,052360
2. 石家庄市地震局,石家庄,050022 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省科技支撑计划项目"利用辛集晋2井进行地震预测预报的研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 利用深井动水位观测资料预报地震,已经被国内外地震学家进行深入研究,并得到了许多珍贵的震例资料.分析了1990年以来晋2井动水位原始观资料,结果显示,在该井附近中强地震前会出现多次阶变(组)异常.通过贝叶斯估算检验得到理论验证,总结出的预报指标在其后的2次地震中得到实际应用.
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| 关 键 词： | 晋2井 动水位 阶变(组)异常 河北 |
Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Assessment of Groundwater Level in Jin-2 Well of Hebei Province |
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| ZHANG Fu-kai,LI Wei,LIU Shuo,LI Zeng-shen,LI Jun.Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Assessment of Groundwater Level in Jin-2 Well of Hebei Province[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2011,29(2):53-56. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Fu-kai LI Wei LIU Shuo LI Zeng-shen LI Jun |
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| Institution: | 1.Earthquake Administration of Xinji,Xinji 052360,China;2.Earthquake Administration of Shijiazhuang,Shijiazhuang 050022,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,dynamic water level data of Jin-2 well since 1990 are analyzed.The result shows that repeated stepping（group） anomalies appear before the occurrence of moderate earthquake in the surrounding area of the well.Predication index are summarized and verified using Bayesian hypothesis testing and applied in the prediction of two earthquakes occurred later. |
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| Keywords: | Jin-2 well dynamic water level stepping change anomaly Hebei |
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