| 地震危险性估计的一种尝试 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋惠珍,巫映祥.地震危险性估计的一种尝试[J].华北地震科学,1994,12(2):27-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋惠珍 巫映祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局地质研究所 北京100029
(宋惠珍，刘洁)，国家地震局地壳应力研究所 北京100085
(巫映祥)，国家地震局地壳应力研究所 北京100085(刘贵梅) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家地震局联合基金会89054资助课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据三角网统一平差和跨断层测量资料，利用位错理论的反演方法，计算了唐山和北京，怀来地区几条主要断层滑动速率和滑动方向，其结果与我们用有限元方法计算的断层应力场配套。并获得三点结果：（１）断层滑动速率大，则断层上庆力高，反之亦然；（２）断层滑动方向与断层应力场方向配套；（３）当跨断层短线大度年变化持续出现线笥关系时，断层浅部与深部滑动一致，而且断层浅部滑速率大，此却表示有发生地震的危险性。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 危险性 断层 滑动速率 |
AN ATTEMPT AT ESTIMATING SEISMIC RISK |
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| Song Huizhen Liu Jie.AN ATTEMPT AT ESTIMATING SEISMIC RISK[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,1994,12(2):27-32. |
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| Authors: | Song Huizhen Liu Jie |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,according to the triangulation and the crossing-fault survey data,several main fault's slip rates and directions are calculated by means of inversion of dislocation in Tangshan, Beijing and Huailai area. The results fit in with the fault stress field which is calculated by FEM,and from that weobtain three results: (l)On the fault plane,the more the fauJt slip rates are,the higher the stresses are,and vice versa; (2)The fault slip direction is in accordance to the fault stress field direction,which is calculated by FEM; (3)The fault shallow slip is consitent with the deep one when the crossing-fault's line - length variations are linear,and at the same time the fault shallow slip rates are larger. It means to be dangerous for earthquake to occur in the future . |
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| Keywords: | inversion method of dislocation model fault slip rate earthquake recurrence period |
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