| 构造"稳定"区强震长期预测的简便途径--以张北地震为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 刁桂苓,张四昌,高景春,王勤彩,赵英萍.构造"稳定"区强震长期预测的简便途径--以张北地震为例[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(1):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刁桂苓 张四昌 高景春 王勤彩 赵英萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省地震局,河北,石家庄,050021 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金资助课题(49974006) |
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| 摘 要： | 作为强震长期预测基础的地震带、潜在震源区的划分,仍然依据地震构造类比和地震活动重复两原则。现有的强震长期预测方法在构造“稳定”区,即没有活动构造、没有历史地震(包括古地震)资料的条件下,无能为力。通过张北地震资料的分析,高精度地震定位并结合波形数据反演震源机制的结果表明：在稳定而统一的构造应力场的作用下,沿其最大剪切应力方向上的小地震集中成带,并且持续活动、震源机制的优势取向与应力场吻合,小震带便可以看作属于现今活动的震源断层,在地震长期预测工作中可以作为划分潜在震源区的依据。构造“稳定”区发生的强震属于新破裂。
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| 关 键 词： | 强震长期预测 张北地震 构造稳定区 潜在震源区 新破裂 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1375(2005)01-0001-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月14日 |
An easy approach to the long term prediction of strong earthquakes in "stable" area--taking Zhangbei earthquake as example |
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| DIAO Gui-ling,ZHANG Si-chang,GAO Jing-chun,WANG Qin-cai,ZHAO Ying-ping.An easy approach to the long term prediction of strong earthquakes in "stable" area--taking Zhangbei earthquake as example[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2005,23(1):1-5. |
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| Authors: | DIAO Gui-ling ZHANG Si-chang GAO Jing-chun WANG Qin-cai ZHAO Ying-ping |
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| Abstract: | As the foundation of long term prediction for strong earthquakes, the determination of seismic zone and potential focal region is based on seismotectonic analogy and repetition of seismic activity. Current long term prediction method is helpless in tectonically "stable" area, in which there is no active structure and historic earthquakes (including paleoearthquakes). The results of high precision seismic location and focal mechanism solution inversed with wave data in Zhangbei earthquake show: under the effect of stable and uniform tectonic stress field, the small earthquakes concentrated on a zone along the direction of maximum shear stress, and kept active. When the predominant direction of focal mechanism is consistent with the direction of stress field, the zone of small earthquakes can be treated as active focal fault. This conclusion can be used in the determination of potential focal region. The earthquake occurred in tectonically "stable" area belongs to new fracture. |
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| Keywords: | long term prediction Zhangbei earthquake tectonically stable area potential focal region uniformity of focal mechanism new fracture |
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