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用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数
引用本文:张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,谢卓娟.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数[J].震灾防御技术,2008,3(1):27-36.
作者姓名:张力方  吕悦军  彭艳菊  谢卓娟
作者单位:中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京,100085
基金项目:中国地震区划图编制项目 , 国家科技支撑计划
摘    要:本文以长江中游地震带为研究区域,该区地震活动比较弱,发震构造不清晰,但人口、经济分布集中,中小地震往往会造成强烈的社会影响。自有记载以来,共记录到122次Ms≥4.7级的地震,最大的地震为1631年常德63/4级地震,在这样的区域进行地震危险性分析,依据构造特征和地震活动进行潜源划分的方法会带来较大的不确定性,为了更合理地评价其危险性,本文试图先在研究区内划分活动水平相当的等b值区域,然后利用空间光滑法计算各区的地震年平均发生率分布。结果显示,各分区内年平均发生率存在较大差异,年发生率分布图与现代和历史地震震中分布格局基本一致,为潜源区划分提供了一种量化的空间参考数据。

关 键 词:弱震区  地震活动性参数  空间光滑方法  完整性评价
收稿时间:2007/12/16 0:00:00

Estimate of Seismic Parameters in Low Seismicity Region by Using Spatially Smoothing Approach
Zhang Lifang,Lu Yuejun,Peng Yanju and Xie Zhuojuan.Estimate of Seismic Parameters in Low Seismicity Region by Using Spatially Smoothing Approach[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2008,3(1):27-36.
Authors:Zhang Lifang  Lu Yuejun  Peng Yanju and Xie Zhuojuan
Institution:Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China;Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China;Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China;Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China
Abstract:The study area is located within the Middle-Reach of Yangtze River seismic belt, where the seismic activity is much weak and the seismogenic structures are not clear. However, a moderate earthquake may cause great impact on the society because of high population and important economy status. From the historical record, there were 122 earthquakes of Ms≥4.7 among which the largest is Changde M 63/4 in 1631. For such area with insufficient data and ambiguous seismogenic structures, uncertainty in delineation of seismic source zones is inevitable in seismic hazard assessment. In this study, the equal b-value zones are delineated, and then the annual rotes of seismicity in these zones are calculated respectively by using spatial smoothed Gaussian function with different correlation distances. The results show that the annual rotes of these zones are various to a certain degree, and the regional distribution of annual rate is in good agreement with the epicenter distribution of modern and historical earthquakes.
Keywords:Low sdsmicity region  Seismic parameter  Spatial smoothing approach  Magnitude of completeness
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