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青藏高原区M_S-L回归关系式的不确定性分析
引用本文:李正芳,周本刚,王明明,陈涛.青藏高原区M_S-L回归关系式的不确定性分析[J].震灾防御技术,2011,6(3):209-219.
作者姓名:李正芳  周本刚  王明明  陈涛
作者单位:中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029
基金项目:地震行业科技专项“走滑活断层定量数据评定潜在震源区参数研究(200808018)”资助
摘    要:本文收集了青藏高原区7级以上以走滑为主的30个地震的地表破裂参数资料,拟合出了青藏高原区新的震级与破裂带长度统计关系式,并结合前人的统计关系式,分别通过破裂带长度估算震级,求出了估算震级与仪器震级的差值。同时将差值为正值(即估算震级偏大)的归为一类,差值为负值(估算震级偏小)的归为另一类,做了分析和对比。研究发现,差值为正值的地震所处的走滑断裂带一般位于一级块体或次级块体的边界断裂带上;差值为负值的地震所处的走滑断裂带大多位于一级块体或次级块体内部断裂带或断裂带的交汇处。基于上述分类的差异,作者对不同回归关系计算的差值数据进行了统计分析,分别给出了修正计算结果不确定性的参考值,为降低估算震级的不确定性提供了理论依据。

关 键 词:青藏高原  震级  破裂带长度  不确定性分析
收稿时间:2011/4/20 0:00:00

The Uncertainty Analysis of MS-L Regression Relation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region
Li Zhengfang,Zhou Bengang,Wang Mingming and Chen Tao.The Uncertainty Analysis of MS-L Regression Relation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2011,6(3):209-219.
Authors:Li Zhengfang  Zhou Bengang  Wang Mingming and Chen Tao
Institution:Li Zhengfang,Zhou Bengang,Wang Mingming and Chen Tao (Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China)
Abstract:We collected 30 strike-slip dominant surface rupture parameters of the earthquake with M S≥7.0 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, and gave out the new statistical relationship of magnitude and rupture length. By using our relationship combined with the previous study, we calculated the error between the estimated magnitude and the magnitude that was measured by the instrument. The errors then are classified into two categories in terms of positive quantity and negative quantity. Through analysis and comparison, we found that the strike-slip fault along which earthquake occurred is typically located in a block or sub-block boundary fault when the errors are in positive quantity, whereas the strike-slip fault along which earthquake occurred is typically located in fault within the block and sub-block or the interchange of the fault when the error is negative. Our results are valuable to reduce the uncertainty of estimated magnitude in the future.
Keywords:The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau  Magnitude  The length of surface rupture  Uncertainty analysis  
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