| 湖南地区分布式地震活动性模型在PSHA中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨勇,高孟潭,史保平.湖南地区分布式地震活动性模型在PSHA中的应用研究[J].震灾防御技术,2009,4(1):91-102. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨勇 高孟潭 史保平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京,100081
2. 中国科学院研究生院地球科学学院,北京,100049 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用了空间光滑地震活动性模型，该模型无需潜在震源区划分，同时发展了概率地震危险性分析新方法。根据三种地震目录资料建立了三种地震活动性模型，利用高斯光滑函数获得了湖南区域内的比值分布特征，使用了两种典型的衰减模型，计算了50年内超越概率10％的地震动峰值加速度（PGA）分布。其分析结果显示PGA分布特征与中国地震动参数区划图大体一致，部分区域PGA提高，PGA达0．05g的区域显著扩大，其中包括邵阳、湘潭、吉首、怀化等重要城市，而这种PGA分布特征与该地区地震活动性特征是一致的。概率危险性曲线的结果表明常德等地区的潜在地震危险性比湖南区域内其他城市高。表明此模型用于地震危险性计算中是简便易行的，且具有较高的精度。尤其对于地质和地震构造信息缺乏的弱震区和中强震区，该方法作为替代方法并有着广泛的应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 分布式地震活动性模型 高斯光滑函数 地震危险性分析 湖南地区 峰值加速度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/10/8 0:00:00 |
Application of Distributed Seismic Modeling of Hunan Area in Seismic Hazard Assessment |
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| Yang Yong,Gao Mengtan and Shi Baoping.Application of Distributed Seismic Modeling of Hunan Area in Seismic Hazard Assessment[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2009,4(1):91-102. |
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| Authors: | Yang Yong Gao Mengtan and Shi Baoping |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;College of Earth Science, Graduate University Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we proposed a spatially smoothed seismicity modeling which does not require delineation of potential seismic zone, and developed the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Taking Hunan region as an example, we obtain seismic parameters by synthesizing three kinds of seismic data, and construct seismic model, then carry through the Gaussian smoothing, calculate precisely smoothing radius, and assign objectively weight of each model. For attenuation relationship, we choose attenuation model calculated by utilizing moderate and small instrumental records, which is more congruently applied in weak seismic region. In addition, we choose other attenuation model to reduce the uncertainty of single one. The results indicate that, at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period, peak acceleration in Changde area is relatively high, the areas where PGA〉0.5m/s^2 have been obviously broadened, and the regions where PGA〉1m/s^2 in the central and southern Hunan area have been aggrandized. In contrast, peak acceleration in Yueyang area is lower than current seismic hazard map of China. Since the peak ground motion distribution patterns in each metropolitan city of the North China are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, we conclude that our model is valuable to calculate seismic hazard in weak and moderate-to-large seismic region. |
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| Keywords: | Distributed seismic modeling Gaussian smoothing function Seismic hazard analysis Hunan region Peak ground acceleration |
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