| 地磁加卸载响应比方法最佳阈值研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾立峰,乔子云,张国苓,丁志华,张建国.地磁加卸载响应比方法最佳阈值研究[J].震灾防御技术,2015,10(2):472-478. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾立峰 乔子云 张国苓 丁志华 张建国 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省地震局,石家庄 050021;河北省地震局,石家庄 050021;河北省地震局,石家庄 050021;河北省地震局,石家庄 050021;河北省地震局邯郸中心台,邯郸 056001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41274079）;地震行业科研专项（201508009-09） |
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| 摘 要： | 地磁加卸载响应比方法(LURR)是从测震学中移植过来的、用于地震中期分析预测的一种地磁学方法。笔者应用红山地震台地磁数字化观测数据进行了地磁加卸载响应比的计算分析,经过统计得出在阈值选择为3.0时对地震进行预测的效果比较好,其与地震的对应概率为42%。同时,笔者还认为可能受限于方法本身及外界因素,地磁加卸载响应比方法在进行地震预测时,其虚报率及漏报率较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 地磁 加卸载响应比 阈值 地震预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/9/2014 12:00:00 AM |
The Study of Optimal Threshold of Geomagnetic Load-Unloading Response Ratio |
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| Jia Lifeng,Qiao Ziyun,Zhang Gouling,Ding Zhihua and Zhang Jianguo.The Study of Optimal Threshold of Geomagnetic Load-Unloading Response Ratio[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2015,10(2):472-478. |
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| Authors: | Jia Lifeng Qiao Ziyun Zhang Gouling Ding Zhihua and Zhang Jianguo |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;Handan Seismic Station, Handan 066001, China |
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| Abstract: | As a middle-term earthquake prediction method, the geomagnetic load-unload response ratio (LURR) was transplanted from the seismological method. Based on digital observation data, we calculated the LURR of Hongshan station. Our results show that when the threshold is 3.0, the accurate rate of the earthquake prediction probability is about 42%. Meantime, find that the false and missing ratio is relatively high when we applied the LURR to predict earthquake. |
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| Keywords: | Geomagnetic Load-unload response ratio Threshold Earthquake prediction |
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