| 基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘哲,李琦,任鲁川,田建伟,张锟.基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计[J].震灾防御技术,2017,12(2):346-353. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘哲 李琦 任鲁川 田建伟 张锟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.防灾科技学院, 北京 101601 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41276020），中央高校基本科研业务费（ZY20160311），中央高校基本科研业务费（ZY20160312） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区，分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布，估计该区强震危险性，结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区，基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性，结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震（M≧7.5）复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%，最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。
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| 关 键 词： | 潜在震源区 强震危险性估计 威布尔分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/9/30 0:00:00 |
Estimation of the Strong Earthquake Risk in Potential Seismic Source Based on 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution |
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| Liu Zhe,Li Qi,Ren Luchuan,Tian Jianwei and Zhang Kun.Estimation of the Strong Earthquake Risk in Potential Seismic Source Based on 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2017,12(2):346-353. |
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| Authors: | Liu Zhe Li Qi Ren Luchuan Tian Jianwei and Zhang Kun |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Disaster Prevention, Beijing 101601, China2.Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China |
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| Abstract: | We propose a method to estimate the strong earthquake risk in the potential seismic source area based on 3-parameter Weibull distribution in this paper. We choose the Tokai-Nankai seismic zone as a case study area to estimate the strong earthquake risk on the assumption that the strong earthquake occurrence time interval in that area coincides with the 2-parameter or 3-parameter Weibull distribution respectively. The results show that the 3-parameter Weibull distribution is superior to 2-parameter Weibull distribution for estimation of strong earthquake risk. We also estimate the strong earthquake risk in the Manila Trench subduction zone based on 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the results show that the strong earthquake (M≧7.5) recurrence probability in 10, 30 and 50 years are 62%, 82%, 89% respectively and the estimated shortest recurrence time interval is 1.70 years. |
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| Keywords: | Potential seismic source Strong earthquake risk estimation Weibull distribution |
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