| 2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震灾害损失快速评估结果分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 任静,张方浩,李志强,陈经纶,李晓丽,于晨,谭专条,陈雅慧,黄帅堂,姚琪.2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震灾害损失快速评估结果分析[J].震灾防御技术,2021,16(3):454-466. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任静 张方浩 李志强 陈经纶 李晓丽 于晨 谭专条 陈雅慧 黄帅堂 姚琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划（2018YFE0109700）；地震动力学国家重点实验室（LED2019B08）；中国地震台网中心青年基金（QNJJ-202105） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文针对2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震，选取不同的地震烈度衰减关系模型，对各模型地震影响场评估结果与发布的地震烈度图进行对比分析，并对地震影响范围不确定性进行研究。选取多种死亡人数评估模型，分别计算各模型在不同地震影响场下的死亡人数、人口分布数量，探讨各地震影响场模型下的人口分布特征及影响人员死亡的主要因素。通过对比分析可知，导致此次地震灾害损失评估结果与真实地震现场结果不同的主要原因是地震影响场分布、人口分布、房屋建筑抗震能力偏差、地形地貌、次生灾害等多种因素不同。研究结果表明，有效提高地震灾害损失快速评估精确性的途径为提高地震影响场评估精度，提高人口分布、房屋建筑等数据空间分布评估精度，后期专家检验等。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震灾害损失 烈度 人员死亡 人口分布 评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-30 |
May 21, 2021, Yangbi,Yunnan MS 6.4 Analysis of the Results of Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Losses |
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| Ren Jing,Zhang HaoFang,Li Zhiqiang,Chen Jinglun,Li Xiaoli,Yu Chen,Tan Zhuantiao,Chen Yahui,Huang Shuaitang,Yao Qi.May 21, 2021, Yangbi,Yunnan MS 6.4 Analysis of the Results of Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Losses[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2021,16(3):454-466. |
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| Authors: | Ren Jing Zhang HaoFang Li Zhiqiang Chen Jinglun Li Xiaoli Yu Chen Tan Zhuantiao Chen Yahui Huang Shuaitang Yao Qi |
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| Institution: | 1.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China2.Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, China3.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China4.Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper selects different seismic intensity attenuation relationship models for the May 21, 2021 Yangbi M6.4 earthquake in Yunnan, and compares and analyzes the seismic impact field evaluation results of each model with the released seismic intensity map, and conducts a comparison of various intensity attenuation models. Uncertainty analysis of the earthquake impact range; select multiple casualty assessment models to calculate and analyze the number of deaths and population distribution of each death model under different earthquake impact fields, and explore the population distribution characteristics of each earthquake impact field model And the main factors affecting the casualties of the earthquake. Through comparative analysis, it can be seen that the main reasons for the difference between the loss assessment results of the Yunnan Yangbi M6.4 earthquake and the real earthquake site results are: the distribution of the earthquake affected field, the population distribution, the deviation of the estimation of the building (seismic capacity), the topography, and the frequency of the earthquake. It is caused by various factors such as natural disasters. The results show that the ways to effectively improve the accuracy of the rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses are: improving the accuracy of the earthquake impact field assessment, improving the accuracy of the spatial distribution of data such as population distribution, housing and construction, and major factors such as later expert intervention. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake disaster loss Intensity Casualties Population distribution Assessment |
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