| 基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王威,田杰,苏经宇,马东辉.基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析[J].地震学刊,2010(5):524-527. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王威 田杰 苏经宇 马东辉 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家十一五科技支撑计划项目（2006BAJ06801 2009BAJ28804）; 中国工程院重大咨询项目（2010-ZD-4）资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了准确评价小城镇灾害易损性所处的状态,进而为制定小城镇防灾减灾规划提供科学依据,提出了基于贝叶斯公式的小城镇灾害易损性随机评价方法。该方法通过计算小城镇灾害易损性单个指标属于某个评价级别的概率,由最大似然分类原则确定单个易损性指标的评价级别,进而采用最大加权概率原则推求其综合评价级别。通过实例计算分析,并与模糊评估方法、可拓物元评价方法进行比较验证,说明了该方法的可行性及其简单、实用的特点。
|
| 关 键 词： | 小城镇 灾害易损性分析 贝叶斯随机评价方法 |
Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method |
| |
| WANG Wei,TIAN Jie,SU Jing-yu,MA Dong-hui.Analysis of Disaster Vulnerability of Small Cities and Towns Based on Bayesian Stochastic Assessment Method[J].Journal of Seismology,2010(5):524-527. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Wei TIAN Jie SU Jing-yu MA Dong-hui |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China; 2.Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to evaluate the vulnerability states of small cities and towns correctly and then to establish scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction,a stochastic assessment method for the vulnerability of small cities and towns by using Bayesian formula was proposed.In this method,according to the maximum likelihood ordering principle,the assessment order of each index of actual small cities and towns was firstly derived through calculating the probability of each of those vulnerability indices belonging to the assessment order used in the vulnerability assessment criteria of small cities and towns.Secondly,the integrated vulnerability assessment order of small cities and towns was derived by using the maximum weighted probability principle.Tested by examples together with the other two methods,i.e.the fuzzy assessment method and extension matter-element method,the results verify effectively that this method is useful and feasible. |
| |
| Keywords: | small cities and towns vulnerability analysis Bayesian stochastic assessment method |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
