| 化工园区重大事故风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周亚飞,刘茂.化工园区重大事故风险分析[J].地震学刊,2011(1):68-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周亚飞 刘茂 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目（70833003）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前我国对化工园区风险分析的理论研究尚处于起步阶段。针对化工园区这一特殊区域,从整体角度出发,分析研究了化工园区内多个重大事故风险源造成的区域风险,并进行了实例应用。综合考虑多个重大事故风险源产生的风险,分析了其产生风险的叠加效应,绘制出化工园区的个人风险等值线;同时根据ALARP（合理可接受风险水平）准则对化工园区的风险水平进行评估,并据此给出化工园区安全规划、风险控制和应急救援工作的实施建议。所提出的化工园区重大事故风险分析方法,在建立和完善化工园区风险分析中具有一定的理论和现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 化工园区 重大事故 定量风险分析 个人风险等值线 安全规划 |
Risk Analysis of Major Accidents in Chemical Industry Areas |
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| ZHOU Ya-fei,LIU Mao.Risk Analysis of Major Accidents in Chemical Industry Areas[J].Journal of Seismology,2011(1):68-74. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Ya-fei LIU Mao |
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| Institution: | (Center for Urban Public Safety Research,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid development of industry in China,the number of establishments which are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year,and many are related to flammable,explosive,toxic, harmful and dangerous substances.Accidents such as fire,explosion and toxic diffusion are inevitable to happen.Once the accidents that were caused by the major hazard in cities happened,they will cause a large number of casualties and property lossess.At present,the theoretical study of risk analysis in chemical industry area is still in its infancy in China.A method for risk analysis of major accidents in chemical industry areas was proposed from an overall point of view in this paper,and had an example of application. The multi-hazard installations in the area were assessed comprehensively.Risk of various major accidents were considered together,the superposition effect was analyzed,individual risk contours were drawn out. Then the level of risk in the chemical industry areas was assessed using ALARP（as low as reasonable practicable） guidelines.According to the results,recommendations of security planning,risk control and emergency response were given out for the area.The proposed method has a certain practical and theoretical significance to establish and improve the risk analysis of chemical industry area. |
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| Keywords: | chemical industry area major accidents quantitative risk analysis individual risk contours security planning |
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