| Abstract: | The proposed site of the Diamer Bhasha Dam in northern Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone with intensive seismicity, which makes it necessary for seismic hazard analysis(SHA). Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for SHA of the dam site. The Main Mantle Thrust(MMT), Main Karakaram Thrust(MKT), Raikot-Sassi Fault(RKSF) and Kohistan Fault(KF) have been considered as major seismic sources, all of which can create maximum ground shaking with maximum potential earthquake(MPE). Deterministically estimated MPE for magnitudes of 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, and 7.1 can be produced from MMT, MKT, RKSF and KF, respectively. The corresponding peak ground accelerations(PGA) of 0.07, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.05 g can also be generated from these earthquakes, respectively. The deterministic analysis predicts a so-called floating earthquake as a MPE of magnitude = 7.1 as close as 10 km away from the site. The corresponding PGA was computed as 0.38 g for a maximum design earthquake at the project site. However, the probabilistic analysis revealed that the PGA with 50% probability of exceedance in 100 years is 0.18 g. Thus, this PGA value related to the operational basis earthquake(OBE) is suggested for the design of this project with shear wave velocity(V_(s30)) equal to 760 m/s under dense soil and soft rock conditions. |
