Natural flood management,land use and climate change trade-offs: the case of Tarland catchment,Scotland |
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| Authors: | Oana Iacob John Rowan |
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| Institution: | 1. Water Services, Arup, Bristol, UK;2. School of Social Sciences, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK |
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| Abstract: | A distributed hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) was applied to a mesoscale catchment to investigate natural flood management as a nonstructural approach to tackle flood risks from climate change. Peak flows were modelled using climate projections (UKCP09) combined with afforestation-based land-use change options. A significant increase in peak flows was modelled from climate change. Afforestation could reduce some of the increased flow, with greatest benefit from coniferous afforestation, especially replacing lowland farmland. Nevertheless, large-scale woodland expansion was required to maintain peak flows similar to present and beneficial effects were significantly reduced for larger “winter-type” extreme floods. Afforestation was also modelled to increase low-flow risks. Land-use scenarios showed catchment-scale trade-offs across multiple objectives meant “optimal” flood risk solutions were unlikely, especially for afforestation replacing lowland farmland. Hence, combined structural/nonstructural measures may be required in such situations, with integrated catchment management to synergize multiple objectives. |
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| Keywords: | climate change land-use change hydrological modelling catchment management flood risk |
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