Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods |
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| Authors: | Fuqiang Tian You Lu Hongchang Hu Wolfgang Kinzelbach Murugesu Sivapalan |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland;3. Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA |
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| Abstract: | Increases in human water consumption (HWC) and consequent degradation of the ecological environment are common in arid regions. Understanding the mechanisms behind these processes is important for sustainable development. Analyses of changes in HWC between alternating wet and dry periods are carried out in four arid inland basins in Central Asia and China (Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe and Shulehe river basins). Based on runoff records, the presence of an asymmetric HWC response is proved (p < 0.01), with an increase in HWC during wet periods and a muted decrease during subsequent dry periods. This behaviour is interpreted by invoking theories from behavioural economics at the individual and community levels. A simple model based on these theories is shown to be able to reproduce the observed dynamics and is used to discuss the importance of strengthening institutional factors for water sustainability. |
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| Keywords: | socio-hydrology emergent dynamics hydrological variability human water consumption prospect theory threshold uncertainty |
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