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Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example |
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| Authors: | Ida K Westerberg Keith J Beven Gemma Coxon Tobias Krueger |
| Institution: | 1. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden;2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK;3. Centre for Natural Disaster Science, CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden;4. Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;5. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK;6. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK;7. IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universit?t zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACTCharacterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty socio-hydrology perceptual model flood risk change analysis |