New fuzzy neural network–Markov model and application in mid- to long-term runoff forecast |
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| Authors: | Biao Shi Chang Hua Hu Xin Hua Yu Xiao Xiang Hu |
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| Institution: | 1. Room 302, Xi’an Research Institute of High Technology, China;2. Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Ning Xia University, Yin Chuan 750021, Ning Xia, China;3. Engineering Research Centre, Ministry of Education on Water Resources Efficient Use in Arid Modern Agriculture, Yin Chuan 750021, Chinabiaosh2008@163.com;5. Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Ning Xia University, Yin Chuan 750021, Ning Xia, China;6. Engineering Research Centre, Ministry of Education on Water Resources Efficient Use in Arid Modern Agriculture, Yin Chuan 750021, China |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTIn this paper, a mid- to long-term runoff forecast model is developed using an ideal point fuzzy neural network–Markov (NFNN-MKV) hybrid algorithm to improve the forecasting precision. Combining the advantages of the new fuzzy neural network and the Markov prediction model, this model can solve the problem of stationary or volatile strong random processes. Defined error statistics algorithms are used to evaluate the performance of models. A runoff prediction for the Si Quan Reservoir is made by utilizing the modelling method and the historical runoff data, with a comprehensive consideration of various runoff-impacting factors such as rainfall. Compared with the traditional fuzzy neural networks and Markov prediction models, the results show that the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm has good performance in faster convergence, better forecasting accuracy and significant improvement of neural network generalization. The absolute percentage error of the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm is less than 7.0%, MSE is less than 3.9, and qualification rate reaches 100%. For further comparison of the proposed model, the NFNN-MKV model is employed to estimate (training and testing for 120-month-ahead prediction) and predict river discharge for 156 months at Weijiabao on the Weihe River in China. Comparisons among the results of the NFNN-MKV model, the WNN model and the SVR model indicate that the NFNN-MKV model is able to significantly increase prediction accuracy. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei |
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| Keywords: | mid- to long-term runoff NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm Si Quan Reservoir Weijiabao |
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