Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff |
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| Authors: | Miko?aj Piniewski Frank Voss Ilona Bärlund Tomasz Okruszko Zbigniew W Kundzewicz |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering , Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska Str. , PL-159, 02-776 , Warszawa , Poland mpiniewski@levis.sggw.pl;3. Centre for Environmental Systems Research , University of Kassel, Wilhelmsh?her Allee 47 , D-34117 , Kassel , Germany;4. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Brückstrasse 3a , D-39114 , Magdeburg , Germany;5. Centre for Environmental Systems Research , University of Kassel, Wilhelmsh?her Allee 47 , D-34117 , Kassel , Germany;6. Department of Hydraulic Engineering , Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska Str. , PL-159, 02-776 , Warszawa , Poland;7. Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska Str. 19 , PL-60-809 , Poznań , Poland;8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg , Potsdam , Germany |
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| Abstract: | Abstract The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754. |
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| Keywords: | global hydrological model catchment hydrological model WaterGAP SWAT climate change Narew River Poland |
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