Prediction of effective porosity from seismic attributes using locally linear model tree algorithm |
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| Authors: | Ahmad Ashtari Talkhestani |
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| Institution: | National Iranian South Oil Company, New‐site, Ahvaz, Iran |
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| Abstract: | In this study, a locally linear model tree algorithm was used to optimize a neuro‐fuzzy model for prediction of effective porosity from seismic attributes in one of Iranian oil fields located southwest of Iran. Valid identification of effective porosity distribution in fractured carbonate reservoirs is extremely essential for reservoir characterization. These high‐accuracy predictions facilitate efficient exploration and management of oil and gas resources. The multi‐attribute stepwise linear regression method was used to select five out of 26 seismic attributes one by one. These attributes introduced into the neuro‐fuzzy model to predict effective porosity. The neuro‐fuzzy model with seven locally linear models resulted in the lowest validation error. Moreover, a blind test was carried out at the location of two wells that were used neither in training nor validation. The results obtained from the validation and blind test of the model confirmed the ability of the proposed algorithm in predicting the effective porosity. In the end, the performance of this neuro‐fuzzy model was compared with two regular neural networks of a multi‐layer perceptron and a radial basis function, and the results show that a locally linear neuro‐fuzzy model trained by a locally linear model tree algorithm resulted in more accurate porosity prediction than standard neural networks, particularly in the case where irregularities increase in the data set. The production data have been also used to verify the reliability of the porosity model. The porosity sections through the two wells demonstrate that the porosity model conforms to the production rate of wells. Comparison of the locally linear neuro‐fuzzy model performance on different wells indicates that there is a distinct discrepancy in the performance of this model compared with the other techniques. This discrepancy in the performance is a function of the correlation between the model inputs and output. In the case where the strength of the relationship between seismic attributes and effective porosity decreases, the neuro‐fuzzy model results in more accurate prediction than regular neural networks, whereas the neuro‐fuzzy model has a close performance to neural networks if there is a strong relationship between seismic attributes and effective porosity. The effective porosity map, presented as the output of the method, shows a high‐porosity area in the centre of zone 2 of the Ilam reservoir. Furthermore, there is an extensive high‐porosity area in zone 4 of Sarvak that extends from the centre to the east of the reservoir. |
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| Keywords: | Reservoir parameter estimation Reservoir geophysics Effective porosity Locally linear model tree algorithm Neuro‐fuzzy model |
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