| 1997年西藏玛尼7.5级地震2001年青海昆仑山口8.1级地震震前中长期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄圣睦,董瑞英.1997年西藏玛尼7.5级地震2001年青海昆仑山口8.1级地震震前中长期预测[J].四川地震,2002(3):15-20,26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄圣睦 董瑞英 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局,四川,成都,610041 |
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| 摘 要： | 作者在1996年底对中国大陆2005年前6级以上强震危险区（13处）作出了预测，其中对应1997年玛尼7.5级地震、2001年昆仑山口8.1级地震，取得了很好的预报效果。本文分时段：1996年底前、1997年11月前、2001年11月前，分别总结了预测依据及震情跟踪分析。加上对同期（1997－2001年）其他强震预测的实际对应，表明地震活动图像分析方法在分析预报研究中是可以有所作为的。
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| 关 键 词： | 1997年 2001年 青海 昆仑山 地震预测 地震活动图像 强震危险性 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8115(2002)03-0015-06 |
Middle- and long-term prediction before Tibet Mani M7.5 Earthquake of 1997 and Qinghai Kunlunshan Pass M8.1 Earthquakes of 2001 |
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| HUAN Sen-mu,DONG Rui-ying.Middle- and long-term prediction before Tibet Mani M7.5 Earthquake of 1997 and Qinghai Kunlunshan Pass M8.1 Earthquakes of 2001[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2002(3):15-20,26. |
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| Authors: | HUAN Sen-mu DONG Rui-ying |
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| Abstract: | The author of this article had made some predictions in his book published in 1996 for the strong earthquakes with magnitude of M 6 0 before 2005 in mainland of China and had indicted in his book that 13 sites may be the possible location of strong earthquakes Several years had passed since 1996 and Tibet Mani M 7 5 Earthquake of 1997 and Qinghai Kunlunshan Pass M 8 1 Earthquake of 2001 are just expected to occur among 13 predictive sites as be pointed out in the book According to situations of present seismic activities occurred in three temporal segments: (1) before the end of 1996, (2) before November 1997 and (3) before November 2001, the historical earthquakes, predictive evidences and seismic tracings are summarized Also according to other data of earthquakes activities,author puts forward an analysis method of seismic image that is useful to the earthquake prediction |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction image of seismicity strong earthquake risk |
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