| 龙门山断裂带茂汶—汶川段的长期强震潜势 |
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| 引用本文： | 白兰香,闻学泽.龙门山断裂带茂汶—汶川段的长期强震潜势[J].四川地震,1994(3):51-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白兰香 闻学泽 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文针对自然生态系统和人工生态系统，分别讨论了公路在选线、施工和运营期对生态的影响，以及通过生态工程达到生态恢复和优化的设想，并首次阐述了“路界生态系统”的概念和内容。
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| 关 键 词： | 历史地震 地震 发震概率 强震 龙门山断裂 |
Seismic Petential of Long term Strong Shock On The Maowen Wenchuan Segment Of The Longmenshan Fault Zone |
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| Bai Lanxiang, Wen Xueze.Seismic Petential of Long term Strong Shock On The Maowen Wenchuan Segment Of The Longmenshan Fault Zone[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1994(3):51-58. |
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| Authors: | Bai Lanxiang Wen Xueze |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau Of Sichuan Province |
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| Abstract: | The Maowen Wenchuan fault segment is the north east segment of the Longmenshanfault zone in west of Sichuan on which the historical seismicity strength is larger. M>=6strongearthquakes have not occurred since 1657 IX degree earthquake. For analysing the seismicpotential on the segment for the future,we systematically analysed the information of destructiveand felt earthquakes. We evaluated the average time interval of characteristic earthquakerecurrence on the fault in recent ness,the probability of repetition strong earthquake in hundredyears from 1995 to future using the rotation model of characteristic earthquake in China continentand the probability medel of repetition time. Moreover,we analysed the variation process ofearthquake repetition risk of probability expression with the passage of time. The results indicatethat the repetition risk of strong earthquake is middle or middle and high level, but the possibilityof earthquake occurrence is smaller in recent years. |
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| Keywords: | historical earthquake segment of fault characteristic earthquake i f jmodel seismogenic probability |
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