| 多前兆出现时间综合概率法在地震预报中的应用研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 程式,闻学泽.多前兆出现时间综合概率法在地震预报中的应用研究[J].四川地震,1995(3):1-7. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 程式 闻学泽 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 四川、滇江地区２０多种曾在的Ｍ≥６级地震前出现过异常的前兆项目的１００多个数据，初步建立起三期异常持续时间Ｔ＿ｐ的概率分布模型。以此为基础，应用宇津等人发展的综合概率方法对１９８９年巴塘６．７级地震和１９８９年小金６．６级地震作了回顾性预报检验。结果表明这种以各学科观测异常资料为基础的综合概率方法，可能是一种对强震进行异常势态跟踪和预报的较好途径。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地震概率，异常持续时间，强震，地震综合预报，韦布尔分布 |
Application of The Synthetic Probability Approach of Multi-Precursor Appearing Time to Earthquake Prediction |
| |
| Cheng Shi, Wen Xueze, Yi Guixi.Application of The Synthetic Probability Approach of Multi-Precursor Appearing Time to Earthquake Prediction[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1995(3):1-7. |
| |
| Authors: | Cheng Shi Wen Xueze Yi Guixi |
| |
| Institution: | SeismologicaI Bureau of Sichuan Province |
| |
| Abstract: | The probability distribution model of the anomaly duration time Tp of three periods is tenta-tively set up by the more than one hundred data of the over twenty precursor anomalies whichappeared before M6.0 earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan area, Taking it as a base for research,we make reviewability prediction and test for the 1989 M6.7 Batang earthquake and the 1989M6. 6 Xiaojin earthquake with the synthetic probability approach developed by Yujin,The resuItsindicate that the synthetic probability approach based on the observation anomaly data of muIti-subject will be a quite good way of following the tracks of anomaly trend and prodicting the com-ing strong earthquake. |
| |
| Keywords: | seismic probability anomaly duration lime multi-disciplinary carthquake prediction Weibul distribution |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
