| 运用地震活动时间扫描分析方法的综合预测信度预测地震时间的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴时平,郭培兰.运用地震活动时间扫描分析方法的综合预测信度预测地震时间的研究[J].华南地震,2005,25(2):1-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴时平 郭培兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区地震局,广西,南宁,530022;广西壮族自治区地震局,广西,南宁,530022 |
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| 摘 要： | 认为地震活动度5、P(b)值、A(b)值、b值、小震调制比Rm、地震时间熵Q^l、算法复杂性AC、地震非均匀度GL、多分维均值Dq、地震集中度C值、地震演化指数YH、地震强度熵Q^E、G-R关系偏离度η、缺震和等效震级M^*等15种地震活动时间扫描分析方法对东南沿海地震带西段4．8级以上地震的发震时间具有一定的预测能力,并将这些方法在震前所显示的异常同步性引伸为地震时间预测信度同步性,初步确定了各种地震活动参数首次出现异常后4．8级以上地震发生在不同时段上的信度,证实了震前预测地震时间信度的同步性要远好于异常同步性,进而计算出这15种分析方法的综合预测信度。研究发现,运用综合预测信度可以较为明确地预测出M≥4．8级地震的发生时段,如果在所预测时段内同步发生了地震活动度．S、P(b)、A(b)和b值异常(并非都要全部发生),则有可能做出6个月内发震的短期预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震活动时间扫描 异常同步性 预测信度 预测信度同步性 综合预测信度 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8668(2005)02-0001-12 |
A study on prediction for seismogenic time by using the synthetical forecasting reliability of temporal scanning of seismicity |
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| WU Shi-ping,GUO Pei-lan.A study on prediction for seismogenic time by using the synthetical forecasting reliability of temporal scanning of seismicity[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2005,25(2):1-12. |
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| Authors: | WU Shi-ping GUO Pei-lan |
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| Abstract: | It is thought that the fifteen analytical methods of temporal scanning of seismic parameters of seismicity degree S-value,P(b)-value,b-value,regulatory ratio of small earthquakes Rm,seismic time entropy Qt,arithmetic complexity Ac-value,seismic hyperdispersion degree??GL-value,fractals Dq,seismic concentration degree C,seismic evolution index YH,seismic intension entropy QE,departure degree??|?-value,seismic deficiency M and equivalent magnitude M,a-value are effective for predicting the seismic time of MS?Y4.8 earthquakes in the west section of the southeast coastal seismic belt and nearby regions. The abnormal synchronization of the above methods displayed before earthquake is amplified on as the forecasting reliability synchronization of seismic time. We primarily confirm the reliability of different periods of time when some earthquakes with magnitude above 4.8 occur after various kinds of seismicity parameters are abnormal for the first time. It is proved that the synchronization of the forecasting reliability for seismic time is much better than the abnormal synchronizatoin. Furthermore,the synthetical forecasting reliability of the fifteen analytical methods is figured out. The seismogenic period for earthquake with magnitude above 4.8 would be forecasted more clearly by using the synthetical forecasting reliability. If the S-value, P(b) -value and b,-value are synchronously abnormal in the forecasting seismogenic period, the short-term predicton for an earthquake occurring within the coming six months may be made out. |
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| Keywords: | Temporal scanning for seismicity "Abnormal synchronization "Forecasting reliability "Synchronization of forecasting reliability "Synthetical forecasting reliability |
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