| 湖南东江水库地震的预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏柏林,刘燕萍,叶秀薇,闻则刚.湖南东江水库地震的预测研究[J].华南地震,2008,28(3):31-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏柏林 刘燕萍 叶秀薇 闻则刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省地震局,广东,广州,510070 |
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| 摘 要： | 1986年8月2日湖南东江水库截流蓄水，10个月后发生水库诱发地震。蓄水初期，地震活动频度与库水位有较明显的相关关系，但1993年至今，地震活动的频度与库水位之间的这种相关性已逐步消失。诱发地震空间分布有一定的规律性，受水体、构造、岩性的控制。依据地震构造背景、水库规模、水库蓄水后诱发最大震级的最大概率时间等预测东江水库诱发地震最大震级不会大于4．99级．1991年发生的3．2级地震应为最大震级的概率是80％。今后仍可能发生3级左右地震。
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| 关 键 词： | 诱发地震 地震活动 东江水库 预测 |
Study on Prediction of Hunan Dongjiang Reservoir Earthquakes |
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| WEI Bolin,LIU Yanping,YE Xiuwei,WEN Zegang.Study on Prediction of Hunan Dongjiang Reservoir Earthquakes[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2008,28(3):31-43. |
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| Authors: | WEI Bolin LIU Yanping YE Xiuwei WEN Zegang |
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| Institution: | (Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510070, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Dongjiang reservoir began to impound water on August 2 1986. After 10 months, induced earthquakes occurred with a largest magnitude of ML3.2 and b value above 1. The earthquake frequency and water level of the reservoir are correlated in the early days, but the correlation has gradually disappeared since 1993. The epicenter distribution of the induced earthquakes is controlled by the depth of water, areal geology and rock characteristics. Based on the seismoteetonies, the size of Dongjiang reservoir and the maximal probability time method, it is predicted that the largest magnitude of Dongjiahg reservoir induced earthquakes is less than M4.99. It has an 80% probability that the ML3.2 earthquake occurred in 1991 is the largest one. It is predicted M3 earthquakes are still probable to occur in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Dongjiang reservoir Induced earthquake Earthquake prediction |
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