Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods |
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| Institution: | 1. National Institute for Earth Physics, 12 Calugareni, 077125 Magurele, Ilfov, Romania;2. Bogazici University, Kandili Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Cengelkoy, Uskudar, 34684 Istanbul, Turkey;1. Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA;2. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA;2. Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand;1. Civil Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Gebze Technical University, 41400, Kocaeli, Turkey;2. Earthquake Engineering Association of Turkey, 06650, Ankara, Turkey |
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| Abstract: | Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully. |
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| Keywords: | Bucharest seismic risk Vrancea earthquakes Loss estimation software SELENA ELER |
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