| 地震危险性分析衰减不确定性校正中的主观不确定性 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈建文,赵鹏君.地震危险性分析衰减不确定性校正中的主观不确定性[J].地震,1994(2):64-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈建文 赵鹏君 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市地震局，安徽省地震局 中国上海 200062，中国合肥 230031 |
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| 摘 要： | 实际使用中的危险性分析模型均带有主观的性质，其与现实原型之间的差异包含两种性质不同的不确定性，即现实模型与理想模型之间的主观不确定性，和理想模型与现实之间的随机误差或客观不确定性。本文具体讨论对衰减规律作（客观）不确定性校正时主观不确定性的影响问题。文中分析了衰减不确定性校正的两种做法，即在危险性分析中直接校正和先忽略衰减不确定性，求得危险性曲线后总校正的做法，讨论了两者的等价性，并用半定量的方法
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 危险性 不确定性 校正 衰减 |
SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES OF ATTENUATION UNCERTAINTY CORRECTION IN SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS |
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| Shen Jianwen.SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES OF ATTENUATION UNCERTAINTY CORRECTION IN SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS[J].Earthquake,1994(2):64-72. |
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| Authors: | Shen Jianwen |
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| Institution: | Shen Jianwen(Seismological Bureau of Shanghai City)Zhao Pengjun(Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province) |
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| Abstract: | All the practical seismic risk analysis models are of subjective nature, the difference between them and the real prototypes includes uncertainties of two kinds of different nature, namely, the random error between the practical model and the ideal model or the objective uncertainty. This paper will discuss the influence problem of the subjective uncertainty on the attenuations law when the uncertainty is objectively corrected. Two methods for correcting attenuation law of the earthquake motion obtained using the existing borrowing method usually overestimate the standard error, therefore, the seismic risk will be overestimated. The paper put forward the suggestion to modify the borrowing principle of the borrowing method. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic risk analysis uncertainty attenuation relationship |
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