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| 南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验 | |
| 引用本文： | 王博,钟骏,王熠熙,陈石.南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验[J].地震,2018,38(1):147-156. |
| 作者姓名： | 王博 钟骏 王熠熙 陈石 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045; 2.中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029; 3.天津市地震局, 天津 300201; 4.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081 |
| 基金项目： | 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2016030302); 地震监测预报专项(20160107) |
| 摘 要： | 以南北地震带北段长时间、 连续并有多次震例记录的流体观测资料为研究对象, 使用Molchan图表法对其与周边地震的关系进行了检验和分析, 计算了时间占有率、 预测效能和概率增益等参数。 结果表明, 南北地震带北段各台项的预测效能差别较大。 整体看来, 甘东南地区的观测资料检验效果较好, 表现为概率增益较大; 青海东部地区的多个测项预测效能检验结果较好, 但概率增益较小; 宁夏北部贺兰山东麓断裂附近两台项的报准率差别不大, 但概率增益、 时间占有率等却都不同。 此外, 从前兆资料变化时间上看, 短期异常和长期异常都较多, 中期异常较少。 |
| 关 键 词： | 流体异常 地震前兆 Molchan图表法 南北地震带 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-01-25 |
Testing the Forecast Efficiency of Underground Fluid Observation in the North Segment of North-South Seismic Belt |
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| WANG Bo,ZHONG Jun,WANG Yi-xi,CHEN Shi.Testing the Forecast Efficiency of Underground Fluid Observation in the North Segment of North-South Seismic Belt[J].Earthquake,2018,38(1):147-156. | |
| Authors: | WANG Bo ZHONG Jun WANG Yi-xi CHEN Shi |
| Institution: | 1. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China; 2. Institute of Geology, CEA, Beijing 100029,China; 3. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipal City, Tianjin 300201, China; 4. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China |
| Abstract: | A mass amount of observation data with long, consecutive, and many earthquake records in the north segment of North-South Seismic Belt are chosen, and Molchan Error Diagram method is used to analyze the relationship between observation data and earthquakes nearby. We calculate "time occupancy", "forecast efficiency" and "probability gain". It shows that the forecast efficiency of the observation data have great differences. On a whole, data in the southeastern area of Gansu province have a good test result, and the probability gain is larger. Most data in the eastern area of Qinghai province have better forecast efficiency, but the probability gain is relatively poorer. The two stations along the eastern foot of Helan mountain fault have a similar forecast rate, but their probability gain, time occupancy, and forecast efficiency are distinct. Besides, from the precursory time of observation data, short-term anomalies and long-term anomalies are dominant. |
| Keywords: | Fluid Anomaly Earthquake precursor Molchan Error Diagram North-South Seismic Belt |
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