| 基于AHP的新疆南天山西段中强地震预测指标体系及效能评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张琳琳,聂晓红,刘建明,魏芸芸,刘萍.基于AHP的新疆南天山西段中强地震预测指标体系及效能评估[J].地震,2016,36(4):205-214. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张琳琳 聂晓红 刘建明 魏芸芸 刘萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆地震科学基金(201404)、 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2015010122)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从新疆南天山西段地区映震效果较好的预测指标出发, 采用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process, 层次分析法)建立了新疆南天山西段地区预测指标体系。 在此基础上, 应用1～9比率标度法构建相应的判断矩阵, 进而计算各指标的权重。 结果显示, 几项映震效果较好的指标中, 权重值相对较大的是短期预测指标中的形变异常和部分测震学参数。 同时AHP模型也给出了新疆南天山西段有无中强地震的综合判断指标Y, Y值可较好地反映新疆南天山西段地区中强地震的震兆强弱程度和异常可靠性, 当Y≥2.191时, 新疆南天山西段地区短期内存在发生中强地震的危险。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测指标 层次分析 效能评估 地震预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-07-30 |
Evaluation of Prediction Indicators for Medium-strong Earthquakes in South Tianshan based on Analytic Hierarchy Process |
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| ZHANG Lin-lin,NIE Xiao-hong,LIU Jian-ming,WEI Yun-yun,LIU Ping.Evaluation of Prediction Indicators for Medium-strong Earthquakes in South Tianshan based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Earthquake,2016,36(4):205-214. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lin-lin NIE Xiao-hong LIU Jian-ming WEI Yun-yun LIU Ping |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | Prediction index system model of medium-strong earthquakes in south Tianshan was established using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on better predictors reflecting the earthquake in South Tianshan. On this basis, we built the judgment matrix with 1~9 ratio scale and then calculated the weight of each index. The results indicate that the top three weight indicators of better predictors reflecting the earthquake were deformation anomalies and part of seismometry parameters of short-term prediction indicators. The analytic hierarchy process model also provided that comprehensive predication index Y with medium-strong earthquakes in South Tianshan, Y value can better reflect strong or weak earthquake precursors and abnormal reliability in South Tianshan. When the value of Y is no less than 2.91, medium-strong earthquakes will likely occur in South Tianshan of Xinjiang in the short-term. |
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| Keywords: | Analytic hierarchy Prediction indicator Judgment matrix South Tianshan |
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