| 1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中,短,临预报及前兆异常特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈立德,罗平.1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中,短,临预报及前兆异常特征[J].地震,1997,17(1):1-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈立德 罗平 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中心!中国昆明，650041，云南省地震分析预报中 |
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| 摘 要： | 简述了孟连７．３级地震中、短、临３个阶段的预报情况及主要依据。重点讨论了异常时空分布特征。结果表明，震前１ａ震中附近地震学空间扫描出现小震频度、调制比等８项异常，为云南省异常项目最多的地区；震前２３５ｄ内震中附近出现中强震的时空密集活跃。定点前兆中期异常的主要特征是，某些项目具有异常持续时间长、异常幅度大，如龙陵水氡异常持续时间长达４．５ａ；永胜短水准、短基线异常幅度分别达２０．９ｍｍ和２２ｍｍ。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 前兆异常 震级 中期预报 短期预报 |
MEDIUM-SHORT TERM AND IMPENDING PREDICTION AND ITS PRECURSORY FEATURES OF M=7.3 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED IN MENGLIAN COUNTY,YUNNAN PROVINCE |
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| Chen Lide, Luo Ping ,Fu Hong ,Cai Jingguan, Liu Xiang,Yang Jieying, Li Yongqiang ,Lei Suhua ,Shen Bin ,Liu Zhongquan.MEDIUM-SHORT TERM AND IMPENDING PREDICTION AND ITS PRECURSORY FEATURES OF M=7.3 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED IN MENGLIAN COUNTY,YUNNAN PROVINCE[J].Earthquake,1997,17(1):1-13. |
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| Authors: | Chen Lide Luo Ping Fu Hong Cai Jingguan Liu Xiang Yang Jieying Li Yongqiang Lei Suhua Shen Bin Liu Zhongquan |
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| Abstract: | The medium-short term and impending prediction of\ Menglian M = 7.3 earthquakeare briefly described with their foundation, and the features of space-time distributionof precursory anomaly are mainly discussed as well. The results show that 8 items ofanomalies (the most of the province) appeared in seismological spatial scanning one yearbefore the main shock, for example, the abnormal frequency of small earthquakes andmodulation ratio, etc. are observed near the epicenter. Concentration of moderatelystrong earthquakes occurred near the epicenter 235 days before. The medium-termanomalies at the fixed point have the following features: some of the items appearedwith long lasting time and large anomaly amplitude. For instance, the anomaly of wat-er radon in Longling lasted for 4.5 years; the anomaly amplitudes for short baseline andshort levelling in Yongsheng reached 20.9 mm and22mm respectively; in the short-termand impending stages," greater changes" appeared in the items of water temperature,water radon, ground tilt, geomagnetism and so on. Their amplitudes are several ortens' times bigger than those of normal variations; Water mercury and water radonanomalies appeared earlier outside the epicenter, and later near it. The medium- andshort- term anomalies are spatially concentrated within the range of 200~ 400 km awayfrom the epicenter, and 200~300 km for the impending anomalies. The anomalous sta-tions and items reach 26%~ 29% and 36.8% resPectively, but only 0~19% in otherranges. Both re1ative numbers of anomalous stations and items for the medium-shortterm and impending anomalies in the whole province are about 54.5% and 38.4%. |
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| Keywords: | Medium-short term and impending prediction Anomalous character Anomaly analysis Menglian earthquake |
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