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| 断层的大地震复发概率研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 朱元清,解朝娣,宋秀青,秦浩文.断层的大地震复发概率研究[J].地震,2013,33(4):1-10. |
| 作者姓名： | 朱元清 解朝娣 宋秀青 秦浩文 |
| 作者单位： | 1.上海市地震局, 上海 200062; 2.云南大学地球物理系, 云南 昆明 650091 |
| 摘 要： | 本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础, 以地震孕育过程为研究主线, 计算了中国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率, 进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。 结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带、 阿尔金断裂带、 东昆仑断裂带、 小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带, 反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区, 应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。 |
| 关 键 词： | 地震危险性 布朗过程时间模型 条件概率 断层 地震复发 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-01-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-05-02 |
A Study of the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquake on Faults in Mainland China |
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| ZHU Yuan-qing , XIE Chao-di , SONG Xiu-qing , QIN Hao-wen.A Study of the Recurrence Probability of Strong Earthquake on Faults in Mainland China[J].Earthquake,2013,33(4):1-10. | |
| Authors: | ZHU Yuan-qing XIE Chao-di SONG Xiu-qing QIN Hao-wen |
| Institution: | 1. Earthquake Administration of Shanghai, Shanghai 200062, China; 2. Department of Geophysics, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time and earthquake preparation process, the probabilities of strong earthquake recurrence have been calculated for major active faults in mainland China for different time spans, and the seismic risk on each fault is studied. Results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault, Altyn Tagh fault, East Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are obviously bigger than other faults in the mainland, these faults are experiencing high-level states of stress accumulation, and may have high seismic risks of strong earthquake recurrences in the future. |
| Keywords: | Brownian passage time model Conditional probability Earthquake recurrence Mainland China |
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