| 用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆远忠,阎利军,郭若眉.用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论[J].地震,1999,19(1):11-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆远忠 阎利军 郭若眉 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国北京,100085,中国地震局地壳应力研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!95－04－04－03－03 |
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| 摘 要： | 在利用地震活动性图像预报地震的研究中，发展了众多定量描述活动图像特征的参量，用它们综合进行短期预报，其相互间的相关性是十分重要的。利用计算机产生地震发生的时间、位置和强度分别符合均匀分布，泊松分布，负指数分布，韦泊尔分布５个随机地震目录，以及华北地区无强震时段的天然地震目录，分别计算了ｂ，Ｃ，Ｄ，Ｍｆ，Ｎ值随时间的变化，统计分析了其相关关系，结果认为，Ｄ值与Ｎ值呈显相关；ｂ值与Ｍｆ值呈显性负相
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 地震活动性 相关性 统计分析 |
DISCUSSION ABOUT CORRELATION OF SOME SEISMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN MEDIUM-AND SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| Lu Yuanzhong,Yan Lijun,Guo Ruomei.DISCUSSION ABOUT CORRELATION OF SOME SEISMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN MEDIUM-AND SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Earthquake,1999,19(1):11-18. |
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| Authors: | Lu Yuanzhong Yan Lijun Guo Ruomei |
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| Abstract: | There are lots of seismological parameters proposed for studying the earthquake prediction by using seismicity pattern. It is very important that whether these parameters are mutually correlated for synthetic earthquake prediction. We make five earthquake catalogues in which the time, location and magnitude of earthquakes are coincident respectively with the even distribution, Poisson distribution, negative exponent distribution and Weibull distribution. Using those catalogues and a natural earthquake catalogue of North China from 1977 to 1988, In which there was no strong earthquake occurred, we compute the b, C, D, Mf and N values and study their mutual correlation in statistics. From the research result and considering the physical mechanism , we conclude that D and N values are obviously correlated, b and Mf values are obviously negatively correlated. Among the rest parameters (excepting one or two), there is not obvious correlation in the random earthquake catalogues, but other parameters are all correlated to a certain degree in North China natural earthquake catalogue. We think that this result should be considered in practice. We also give some suggestion regarding how to use these parameters in earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake preparation Seismic activity correlation Statistical analysis |
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