| 孟连7.3级强震短临预报研究--应用"层次法"的模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦保燕,荣代潞.孟连7.3级强震短临预报研究--应用"层次法"的模拟预测[J].地震,2000,20(3):9-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦保燕 荣代潞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;49674210; |
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| 摘 要： | 孟连7.3 级大震前有中强地震发生,这对大震的地点预报十分有利,但中、强震发生后是否一定有大震发生,这仍然是预报难题.其次,中、强震发生后,究竟相隔多长时间后发生大震,这是另一个预报难题.以孟连地震作为震例,用"层次法"对上述二个问题作出回答.最后由"层次法"得到孟连地震的预报参数为:震中22°N,99°E;MX 7 .3;时间1995年7月12日.预测参数与实际地震参数一致.
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| 关 键 词： | 层次法 中强前震 强震 短临预报 |
Study on the short-term prediction of strong Menglian earthquake(M7.3)--Modeling Prediction by Applying "Hierarchy Method" |
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| QIN Bao-yan,RONG Dai-lu.Study on the short-term prediction of strong Menglian earthquake(M7.3)--Modeling Prediction by Applying "Hierarchy Method"[J].Earthquake,2000,20(3):9-14. |
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| Authors: | QIN Bao-yan RONG Dai-lu |
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| Abstract: | : There are several moderately strong earthquakes occurred before Menglian
earthquake, which is useful to the location prediction of the strong earthquake followed.
Bu t it is still a difficult problem whether a strong earthquake will occur or not after
moderately strong earthquakes have occurred in an area. On the other hand, it is another
problem t hat how long an expected strong earthquake will occur after the occurrence of a
moderate earthqu ake. |
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| Keywords: | Hierarchy Method Moderately strong earthquake Strong earthquake Short term and imminent prediction |
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