| 地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张立人,陈正位.地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测[J].地震,2001,21(1):53-58. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张立人 陈正位 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国地震局分析预报中心, |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国地震局科研项目，96-913-07-05， |
| |
| 摘 要： | 提出一种地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计方法：利用中低震级累计频度∑N与震级近似的直线关系得到间隔地震频度N与震级的线性关系。用间隔度N与震级的线性关系估计最大地震M1。结果表明，以震级－间隔频率的线性关系估计的M1比震级－累计频度关系得到的M1更接近实际发生的最大地震震级，震级－累计频率关系得到M1通常被高估。基于震级－累计频度关系曲线的特征和震级－间隔频度的线性关系估计的最大地震M1，可为中－长期地震趋势预测提供新的信息。研究表明，中国大陆自1979年开始的地震幕即将结束，而帕米尔东北侧自1915年以来的地震平静期也将结束。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地震趋势预测 最大地震震级 震级－累计频度关系 地震期 地震幕 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3274(2001)01-0053-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年3月27日 |
Estimate of maximum earthquake magnitude for a seismic period or episode and medium-long term earthquake trend prediction |
| |
| ZHANG Li-ren,CHEN Zheng-wei.Estimate of maximum earthquake magnitude for a seismic period or episode and medium-long term earthquake trend prediction[J].Earthquake,2001,21(1):53-58. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Li-ren CHEN Zheng-wei |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper proposed one method, which uses the linear relation between the mid-dle-low magnitude and cumulative frequency to obtain the linear relation between magnitudeand interval frequency. The maximum earthquake magnitude M1 can be calculated by using thelinear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The calculation results show that:by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency, the estimated maximumearthquake magnitude M1 is closer to the observed maximum earthquake magnitude in one seis-mic period or episode than that estimated by using the relation between magnitude and cumula-tive frequency. The later one is often overestimated. The evolutional characteristics of the rela-tion curve between magnitude and cumulative frequency, and the estimated maximum earth-quake magnitude M1 by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency cangive the new information in the medium-long term earthquake trend prediction for one seismicperiod or episode. The investigation shows that the seismic episode started from 1979 in Chinais coming to the end, a seismic ally quiet period is close to the end in the area of the North-Eastern side of Pamirs. |
| |
| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Maximum earthquake magnitude Relation between magnitude and cumulative frequency Seismic period or episode |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
