| Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王晓青,石绍先,丁香.Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测[J].地震,1999,19(1):33-40. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王晓青 石绍先 丁香 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国北京,100036,中国地震局分析预报中心
2. 中国昆明,650041,云南省地震局 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!95－04－05－02－04 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法，并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料，采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常，利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下，内符检验的R值可达0．54，外推时空占有率0．07，获得了满意的效果。
|
| 关 键 词： | 水氡异常 地震短临预测 χ2统计检验 Bayes判别分析 |
BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SHORT AND IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
| |
| Wang Xiaoqing,Shi Shaoxian,Ding Xiang.BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SHORT AND IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Earthquake,1999,19(1):33-40. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Xiaoqing Shi Shaoxian Ding Xiang |
| |
| Abstract: | A Bayes discriminant analysis is developed in the paper, in which the threshold of classification can be determined according to the risk level we take. The method is available in earthquake forecast with a variety of time scales. An example which shows good results of short term and imminent earthquake forecast with Radon data observed in Yunnan during 1994~1997 is also given in the paper. |
| |
| Keywords: | Radon anomaly Short term and imminent earthquake forecast X2 statistical test Bayes discriminant analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
