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| 一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之二 | |
| 引用本文： | 朱令人,洪时中,陈棋福,郑兆苾,王琼.一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之二[J].地震,2004,24(2):119-125. |
| 作者姓名： | 朱令人 洪时中 陈棋福 郑兆苾 王琼 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆,乌鲁木齐市,830011 2. 成都市地震局,四川,成都,610015 3. 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京,100036 4. 安徽省地震局,安徽,合肥,230031 |
| 基金项目： | 地震科技攻关项目,96-913-01-05, |
| 摘 要： | 该提出了评价一次地震预报有效性的概率统计法(套圈模型)。设预报4维空间中一个有限封闭的范围,实际地震落人其范围内即为“报准”,否则为“未报准”。在报准的情况下,预报区间的大小就反映预报水平的高低。这可用预报区域内地震发生的自然概率P来衡量。与“打靶模型”相似,“套圈模型”评价上限是准理想预报尺度,下限是可容忍误差尺度。根据不同的尺度,计算相应的概率。以相应概率对数值之差为比例计算评价值。实际算例表明,此方法与距准误差评价结果相当吻合。 |
| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 概率统计 预报有效性 套圈模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3274(2004)02-0119-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年7月22日 |
Probability statistic method of evaluating efficiency of an earthquake prediction--Part 2 of evaluation of Mid-short term precursor and prediction efficiency |
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| ZHU Ling-ren,HONG Shi-zhong,CHEN Qi-fu,ZHENG Zhao-bi,WANG Qiong.Probability statistic method of evaluating efficiency of an earthquake prediction--Part 2 of evaluation of Mid-short term precursor and prediction efficiency[J].Earthquake,2004,24(2):119-125. | |
| Authors: | ZHU Ling-ren HONG Shi-zhong CHEN Qi-fu ZHENG Zhao-bi WANG Qiong |
| Institution: | ZHU Ling-ren~1,HONG Shi-zhong~2,CHEN Qi-fu~3,ZHENG Zhao-bi~4,WANG Qiong~1 |
| Abstract: | The paper puts forward the Probability Statistic Method of Evaluation Efficiency of an Earthquake Prediction ("Ringing-circle" Model). We assume that there is a limited close area in four-dimensional prediction space. We call it "prediction nicety" if one earthquake occurred in such an area, otherwise "prediction not nicety". In the case of "prediction nicety", the size of prediction area reflects prediction level, which could be evaluated by natural probability P of earthquake occurrence in prediction area. Evaluating upper limit of "ringing-circle" model just like "target practice" model is scale of quasi-ideal prediction, and lower limit is tolerated-error scale. According to different scales, we calculate the corresponding probability. We get evaluating value with ratio to logarithm difference of corresponding probability. Earthquake cases show that the method is consistent with evaluating method of "off-center" error. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Probability statistics "ringing-circle" model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |