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汶川地震对华东地区中强震的影响分析
引用本文:缪鹏,王行舟,吴小平.汶川地震对华东地区中强震的影响分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(2):6-11.
作者姓名:缪鹏  王行舟  吴小平
作者单位:1. 中国合肥,230026,中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院;中国合肥,230031,安徽省地震局
2. 中国合肥,230031,安徽省地震局
3. 中国合肥,230026,中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院
基金项目:地震科学联合基金,安徽省地震局重点基金,震情跟踪重点定向工作任务 
摘    要:汶川8.0级巨大地震发生在青藏块体与华南活动地块交界部位的龙门山断裂带上,是在青藏块体长期受印度板块NNE向推挤隆升并向东挤压的背景下形成的。统计分析表明,1900年以来,青藏块体Ms≥7.0强震和华东地区Ms≥5.0中强震存在较好的对应关系。通过概率增益模型检验这种对应关系,发现并非随机对应,而是存在一定的内在物理联系,与这两个区域存在构造关联相一致。通过β分布函数的概率计算,预测2011年之前华东地区发生5级以上中强震的概率为0.68。

关 键 词:青藏块体  中强地震  概率增益模型  β分布函数

Analysis of influence of Wenchuan earthquake on the moderate earthquakes in East China
Miao Peng,Wang Xingzhou,Wu Xiaoping.Analysis of influence of Wenchuan earthquake on the moderate earthquakes in East China[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2010,31(2):6-11.
Authors:Miao Peng  Wang Xingzhou  Wu Xiaoping
Institution:1. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China 2. Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China)
Abstract:The Qinghai-Tibet block was pushed by Indian plate in NNE direction for a long period, and the bloek uplifted and squeezed eastward. At this background, Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake occurred in the Longmenshan fault, which is the junction of the Qinghai-Tibet block and the South China active block. Statistical analysis indicates a better corresponding relationship between strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 in the Qinghai-Tibet block and moderate earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 in East China since 1900. On the basis of synthetic probability gain model, it can be found that it is not a randomly relationship, but a certain of internal physical connection, which is consistent with the tectonic association existing in the two regions. Using the β-distribution function, it can be predicted that the occurrence probability of the moderate earthquake with Ms≥5.0 in East China before 2011 is 0.68.
Keywords:Qinghai-Tibet block  moderate earthquakes  synthetical probability gain model  β-distribution function
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