| 地震拟合优度在青海中强地震预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李滔,马建新,孙丽,丁宁霞.地震拟合优度在青海中强地震预报中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(2):31-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李滔 马建新 孙丽 丁宁霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国青海,810001,西宁地震台
2. 中国西宁,810001,青海省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用地震拟合优度的计算公式，对青海省中东部的6个ME≥6．0地震从震前数年开始进行地震拟合优度计算，发现这6个地震震前一段时间地震拟合优度都有一定程度的下降。再对共和7．1级地震震中附近一定区域内的地震进行拟合优度计算，进而提取震中周边300kmME≥5．8以上地震的中期预报指标。并对这一指标进行预报水平评分。结果表明，这一方法对共和地震震中胤边300km ML≥5．8以上地震的中期预报有一定的应用价值。另外，对拟合优度计算参数的选取进行分析，确定了最优的计算参数。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震拟合优度 青海省 地震预报 中期预报指标 |
The application of earthquake optimization mimesis in earthquake prediction |
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| Li Tao,Ma Jianxin,Sun Li,Ding Ningxia.The application of earthquake optimization mimesis in earthquake prediction[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2009,30(2):31-37. |
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| Authors: | Li Tao Ma Jianxin Sun Li Ding Ningxia |
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| Institution: | Li Tao , Ma Jianxin , Sun Li, Ding Ningxia(1.Xining Seismic Station, Qinghai Province 810001, China;2. Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China) |
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| Abstract: | Using the formula of earthquake optimization mimesis, we have calculated the optimization mimesis of six earthquakes of ML≥6.0 in the middle-east of Qinghai Province. The results show that the optimization mimesis has a certain exte also calculated the optimization mimesis of Gonghe phase prediction standard for ML≥5.8 earthquake in center. This standard was graded afterwards. The c application value in ML≥5.8 earthquake prediction. culation parameter, and ascertained the optimization nt decline in a period before quakes. We ML7. 1 earthquake, and found a metathe region about 300 km around the epionclusion is that this method has some Furthermore, we have analyzed the calparameter. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake optimization mimesis Qinghai Province earthquake prediction the metaphase prediction standard |
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