| 山西地区地震综合概率预测模型及回溯性检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭文峰,刘瑞春,王霞,李宏伟,曹志勇.山西地区地震综合概率预测模型及回溯性检验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2022,43(3):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭文峰 刘瑞春 王霞 李宏伟 曹志勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国太原 030021 山西省地震局;2. 中国山西 030024 太原理工大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 山西省地震局2021年度攻关子项目3(项目编号:SBK-2121-03);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(项目编号:2021010507);山西省青年科技研究基金(项目编号:201901D211550) |
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| 摘 要： | 概率地震危险性分析是对相关区域地震活动水平的估计，是量化地震危险性的有效手段。基于泊松分布模型获得山西地区背景地震概率，结合每个单项方法预测效能获取的指标权重，采用综合概率法得到山西地区基于多种单项预测方法的地震综合概率模型。对 1985年以来山西地区 MS ≥ 5.0地震进行回溯性检验，结果表明：异常点受控于统一应力场，震前各类（包括测震、形变、电磁以及流体学科）预测指标均存在且表现出准同步性；震级大小与异常数量呈一定正相关性，震级越大，异常指标越多，综合概率值越大。
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| 关 键 词： | 背景地震概率 预测指标 综合概率模型 山西地区 回溯性检验 |
Comprehensive probability prediction model and retrospective test of earthquakes in Shanxi region |
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| GUO Wenfeng,LIU Ruichun,WANG Xia,LI Hongwei,CAO Zhiyong.Comprehensive probability prediction model and retrospective test of earthquakes in Shanxi region[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2022,43(3):1-9. |
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| Authors: | GUO Wenfeng LIU Ruichun WANG Xia LI Hongwei CAO Zhiyong |
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| Institution: | 1. Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan 030021, China;2. Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi Province 030024, China |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is an estimation of the seismicity level in relevant regions,and it is an effective means to quantify the seismic risk.Based on Poisson distribution model,the background earthquake probability is obtained in Shanxi region,and based on multiple single prediction methods and combined with the indexes weight obtained by the prediction efficiency of each single method,the comprehensive probability method is used to obtain the comprehensive probability model of earthquake in Shanxi region.The retrospective test of MS ≥ 5 earthquakes in Shanxi region since 1985 shows that the anomaly points are controlled by the unified stress field,and all kinds of prediction indexes (including seismometry,deformation,electromagnetism and underground fluid) existed and showed quasi-synchronization before the earthquakes;There is a certain positive correlation between the magnitude and the number of anomalies.The larger the magnitude,the more the anomaly indexes and the greater the comprehensive probability value. |
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| Keywords: | background earthquake probability prediction index comprehensive probability model Shanxi region retrospective test |
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