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云南地区强震前小震调制比特征分析
引用本文:孙楠,付虹,彭关灵,刘自凤.云南地区强震前小震调制比特征分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2021,42(5):82-89.
作者姓名:孙楠  付虹  彭关灵  刘自凤
作者单位:1.中国安徽 230026 中国科学与技术大学地球和空间科学学院;2.中国昆明 650224 云南省地震局
基金项目:中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(项目编号:2020010128);云南省地震局科技专项(项目编号:2020ZX02)
摘    要:利用调制比时空扫描方法,对1973—2014年云南地区MS≥6.0地震进行回溯性研究,分析强震前区域小震调制比时空演化过程。结果显示,从小震调制比异常开始至发震的持续时间为1.5 a之内,调制比异常的最高值需大于0.57,强震多发生在调制比为最高值时或其后14个月内异常区边界或内部调制比显著高值附近,震级随异常持续时间的延长大致呈增加的趋势;小滇西—滇西北地区的强震多发生在调制期内;从分区来看,滇西南强震多发生在调制比为最高值(Rm≥0.57)后6个月内的异常边界处,尤其是3个月内,滇西北强震多发生在最高值(Rm≥0.67)后7—12月内异常区内显著高值附近,滇东北强震多发生在最高值(Rm≥0.67)时的异常区内。

关 键 词:强震  小震调制比  异常判别

Analysis of characteristics of small earthquake modulation ratio before strong earthquakes in Yunnan region
SUN Nan,FU Hong,PENG Guanling,LIU Zifeng.Analysis of characteristics of small earthquake modulation ratio before strong earthquakes in Yunnan region[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2021,42(5):82-89.
Authors:SUN Nan  FU Hong  PENG Guanling  LIU Zifeng
Institution:1.School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;2.Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China
Abstract:Using the spatiotemporal scanning method of modulation ratio (Rm), a retrospectively study of MS ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in the Yunnan region from 1973 to 2014 was carried out to analyze Rm spatiotemporal evolution of regional small earthquakes before strong earthquakes. The results show that the duration from the start of anomalies to earthquake occurrence is less than 1.5 years, the max Rm value should be greater than 0.57, strong earthquakes mostly occur at the time of the max Rm or within 14 months afterward and the epicenters are always located at the boundary of the anomaly area or near the significant-high Rm place in the anomaly area, there is a general increasing trend for magnitude with anomaly duration. Strong earthquakes usually occur in western Yunnan. In terms of regions, most strong earthquakes in southwest Yunnan occur within 6 months, especially 3 months, after the max Rm value (Rm ≥ 0.57) at the boundary of the anomaly area, and strong earthquakes in northwest Yunnan often occur within 7-12 months after the max Rm value (Rm ≥ 0.67) near significant-high Rm place in the anomaly area, strong earthquakes in northeast Yunnan mostly occur at the time of the max Rm value (Rm ≥ 0.67) in the anomaly area.
Keywords:strong earthquake  small earthquake modulation ratio  anomaly discrimination
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