| 福建尤溪街面水库诱发地震潜在危险性预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 许振栋,陈宝根,罗家天,余庆旺.福建尤溪街面水库诱发地震潜在危险性预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2008,29(4):24-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许振栋 陈宝根 罗家天 余庆旺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国福建,353000,南平地震台
2. 中国福建,353000,南平市地震局 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局地震监测、预报、科研"三结合"资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 福建尤溪街面水库已于2007年2月下闸蓄水，蓄水后是否会诱发地震？如果会诱发地震，它能诱发多大震级的地震一直是人们关心的问题。本文根据库区主要断裂活动、地质构造背景和国内外已发生水库诱发地震震例资料，结合尤溪街面水库库区的具体情况，应用概率预测法，综合影响参数预测法，两级模糊评判法，发育断裂长度预测震级法和历史地震最高震级预测法等方法，对街面水库诱震危险性和可能诱发的最大震级进行研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 街面水库 主要断裂活动 诱震危险性 最大震级预测 |
The prediction of potential risk of induced earthquake in the Jiemian reservoir of Fujian Province |
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| Xu Zhendong,Chen Baogen,Luo Jiatian,Yu Qingwang.The prediction of potential risk of induced earthquake in the Jiemian reservoir of Fujian Province[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2008,29(4):24-32. |
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| Authors: | Xu Zhendong Chen Baogen Luo Jiatian Yu Qingwang |
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| Institution: | Xu Zhendong ,Chen Baogen , Luo Jiatian and Yu Qingwang( 1) Nanping Seismic Station, Fujian Province 353000, China 2)Earthquake Administration Nanping City, Fujian Province 353000, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Jiemian reservoir has begun retained water since February, 2007. Whether will induce earthquakes after retain water？ If it will induce the earthquake, what the maximum magnitude of the induced earthquake is. The seismic trend in the area is public concerned about. In the paper, the risk and the maximum magnitude of the induced earthquakes in the Jiemian reservoir is discussed based on the regional geologic structure background, activity of main faults and other earthquake instances. In order to predict the risk of induced earthquakes and magnitude of earthquakes, many methods are applied, such as, probabilistic evaluation, comprehensive effect parameter E evaluation, the maximum magnitude of historical earthquakes evaluation and so on. |
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| Keywords: | Jiemian reservoir main fault activity risk of induced earthquake prediction of the maximum magnitude |
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