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华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析
引用本文:郑先进,刘东旺,沈小七,刘泽民.华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(2):1-5.
作者姓名:郑先进  刘东旺  沈小七  刘泽民
作者单位:中国合肥,230031,安徽省地震局
基金项目:中国地震局震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务,安徽省科技攻关计划,地震科学基金 
摘    要:用统计学上的χ~2检验方法对华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静进行了统计检验,得出在较高的置信概率下可以将平静时间T≥140天作为平静异常的判别标准。总结了华东地区自1970年以来出现的平静异常,并分析了其对应中强地震的情况。研究表明,M_L≥4.0地震平静异常是华东地区中强震前的一种普遍现象。62.5%的平静异常后发生了M_S≥4.5地震;绝大多数平静异常前存在着地震活动的增强过程,多次活动增强后连续发生了平静异常且之后发生了M_S≥5.0地震。

关 键 词:华东地区  地震平静  检验  地震时间间隔

Seismic quiescence of ML≥4.0 earthquakes in East China and its significance in earthquake prediction
Zheng Xianjin,Liu Dongwang,Shen Xiaoqi,Liu Zemin.Seismic quiescence of ML≥4.0 earthquakes in East China and its significance in earthquake prediction[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2010,31(2):1-5.
Authors:Zheng Xianjin  Liu Dongwang  Shen Xiaoqi  Liu Zemin
Institution:(Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China)
Abstract:In this article, we use the examination method to give statistic and examination of ML≥4.0 earthquake quiescence in East China. We get the conclusion that if the quiet time of ML≥4.0 earthquake is more than 140 days, it can be regarded as an abnormity with high probability. We summarized the ML≥4. 0 earthquake quiescence abnormity in East China since 1970 and analyzed the subsequent mid-strong earthquakes. It can be found that there were earthquake quiescence abnormity before most mid-strong earthquakes in East China. After a quiescence abnormity, in most cases (62.5%), an earthquake of Ms≥4. 5 will occur. Before most quiescence abnormity, there is an activity abnormity. Many times after an activity abnormity, continuous quiescence ahnormity occurs and then an earthquake of Ms≥5.0 happens.
Keywords:East China  earthquake quiescence  examination method  interval between earth quakes
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