| 四川理县蒲溪乡边坡变形监测及降雨影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 樊俊屹,李正媛,余丹.四川理县蒲溪乡边坡变形监测及降雨影响分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2021,42(4):87-93. |
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| 作者姓名： | 樊俊屹 李正媛 余丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国北京100045 中国地震台网中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 973项目：西部山区大型滑坡致灾因子识别、前兆信息获取与预警方法研究（项目编号：2013CB733206） |
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| 摘 要： | 四川省阿坝州理县蒲溪乡河坝村后山边坡属于老滑坡区，2014年6月以来，出现地表拉裂、鼓胀、下挫及挡墙剪切错断等现象，并不断加剧恶化，严重威胁当地民众安全。为预防滑坡灾害，当地政府在边坡前修建防护坝。为评估该防护工程效果，获取6个新建GNSS观测点实时变形观测数据，运用灰色关联法，明确降水变率是造成该区形变的主要因素，进而采用边坡变形量行业常用GM(1, 1)模型，预测可能的边坡形变量，并与GNSS观测点实测值对比，结果表明，在防护坝建成1年7个月后，边坡变形速率逐渐减缓，防护工程治理效果显现。
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| 关 键 词： | 变形监测 灰色关联法 边坡治理工程 GM(1 1)模型 |
Slope deformation monitoring and rainfall influence analysis in Lixian County,Sichuan Province |
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| FAN Junyi,LI Zhengyuan,YU Dan.Slope deformation monitoring and rainfall influence analysis in Lixian County,Sichuan Province[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2021,42(4):87-93. |
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| Authors: | FAN Junyi LI Zhengyuan YU Dan |
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| Institution: | China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China |
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| Abstract: | The slope behind the Heba village in Puxi Township, Li County, Aba Prefecture, Sichuan Province, is located in an old landslide area and became active recently. After June 2014, surface cracks, swelling, slumping, and shear and dislocation of retaining walls appeared and became aggravated, which seriously threatened the safety of the primary school and households below the slope. To prevent slope failure, the local government built a protection dam in front of the slope area. In order to evaluate the effect of the protection project, this study collects deformation observations of six newly constructed GNSS observation sites. Using the grey relational analysis, it is found that precipitation is the main factor causing deformation in the region. Then, the GM(1, 1) model that is frequently used in landslide studies is used to predict the slope deformation and compare the predictions with the GNSS observations to evaluate the effect of the protection project. The results show that the slope deformation rate gradually slowed down one year and seven months after the construction of the protection dam, and the effect of the protection project is obvious. |
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| Keywords: | deformation monitoring grey relational analysis slope protection project GM (1 1) model |
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