首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

气候变化影响的最新认知
引用本文:林而达,吴绍洪,戴晓苏,刘洪滨,刘春蓁,高庆先,李从先,包满珠.气候变化影响的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):125-131.
作者姓名:林而达  吴绍洪  戴晓苏  刘洪滨  刘春蓁  高庆先  李从先  包满珠
作者单位:中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所 中国气象局科技发展司 中国气象局 国家气候中心 气候研究开放实验室 中国环境科学研究院
基金项目:气候变化专家委员会咨询项目
摘    要: 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第二工作组于2007年4月6日正式发布了第四次评估报告,该报告客观、全面而审慎地评估了气候变化已有的和未来的可能影响。现有观测证据表明,人为增暖可能已对许多自然和生物系统产生了可辨别的影响,但由于适应以及非气候因子的作用,许多影响还难以辨别。21世纪中期,某些中纬度和热带干旱地区年平均河流径流量和可用水量会减少10%~30%;如果全球平均温度增幅超过1.5~2.5℃,目前所评估的20%~30%动植物物种可能面临灭绝的风险会增大;从全球角度看,局地平均温度增加1~3℃,预计粮食生产潜力会增加,但若超过这一范围,则会减少。兼顾适应和减缓的措施能够降低气候变化相关风险。

关 键 词:气候变化  影响与适应  IPCC第二工作组  第四次评估报告
文章编号:1673-1719(2007)03-0125-07
收稿时间:2007-4-23
修稿时间:2007-04-232007-04-27

Updated Understanding of Climate Change Impacts
Lin Erda,Wu Shaohong,Dai Xiaosu,Liu Hongbin,Liu Chunzhen,Gao Qingxian,Li Congxian,Bao Manzhu.Updated Understanding of Climate Change Impacts[J].Advances in Climate Change,2007,3(3):125-131.
Authors:Lin Erda  Wu Shaohong  Dai Xiaosu  Liu Hongbin  Liu Chunzhen  Gao Qingxian  Li Congxian  Bao Manzhu
Institution:1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Bering 100081, China; 5 Water Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China; 6 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; 7 School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 8 Huazhong AgriculturaI University, Wuhan 430070, China
Abstract:"Climate Change 2007? Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was launched on April 6, 2007. This report summarize the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on impact and adaptation. The observed evidence shows that it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, but many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic factors. By the mid-21th century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%~30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics; Approximately 20%~30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5~2.5℃; Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1~3℃, but above this it is projected to decrease. A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.
Keywords:climate change  impacts and adaptation  IPCC WGII  the Fourth Assessment Report
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》下载免费的PDF全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号