| EU ETS试验阶段微观交易大数据分析及其对中国的启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘寅鹏,郭剑锋,范英.EU ETS试验阶段微观交易大数据分析及其对中国的启示[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(6):420-428. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘寅鹏 郭剑锋 范英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所，北京 100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目：语义支撑下以原油市场为例的Web知识发现关键方法及实证研究;我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济影响分析，国家自然科学基金重大国际合作与交流项目;世界石油贸易格局的系统分析方法与我国的影响力研究，国家自然科学青年基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对欧盟独立交易登记系统（CITL）的抓取、识别、清洗与融合构建了全样本的交易大数据集合，完整地重现了欧盟碳排放权交易体系（EU ETS）在试验阶段的市场微观结构。进而从市场内部微观视角出发，对EU ETS的市场微观体系、排放企业的微观交易行为，以及市场供需微观演化等予以分析，结果表明在市场建立初期：排放企业的交易大多是以配额履约为目的；交易行为呈现活跃度低、季节性和同向性的特点；市场上少量的高排放企业凭借其在配额总量、资金和信息上的优势在交易中占据了主导地位。此外，微观行为数据还反映了金融部门在碳配额交易中的作用：配额在前期流向金融部门使得供过于求的状况有所缓解，但当配额流出金融部门时，市场供需失调的情况被迅速放大。在碳市场建立初期，理解EU ETS市场参与者微观行为特点以及潜在的风险，对中国即将启动的全国统一碳排放权交易体系的机制设计有重要的启示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放权交易 交易记录 微观交易行为 排放企业 金融机构 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-05-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-10-04 |
Big Data Analysis of the EU ETS Trial Phase and Its Enlightenment on China |
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| Liu Yinpeng,GuoJianfeng,Fan Ying.Big Data Analysis of the EU ETS Trial Phase and Its Enlightenment on China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2015,11(6):420-428. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yinpeng GuoJianfeng Fan Ying |
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| Institution: | Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | By collecting, processing and combining the Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL) data, the market micro structure of the trial phase European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) was built. On this basis, the market setup, the trading behaviour of emitting companies, and the evolution of the market demand supply situation of the EU ETS were conducted. From a general perspective, the main motivation of emitting companies’trading behaviour was for compliance. Consequently, their trading behaviour was found inactive, seasonal and inclined to resort only one type of behavior either buying or selling. The companies who had massive amounts of allowances therefore dominated the allowances trading by using their advantages of allowance stock, financial condition and information asymmetry. This paper also regarding the impacts of the participation of the financial companies, it was observed that the oversupply situation was eased when the allowances were absorbed by financial companies in the initial two years and became deteriorated, when the allowances were flowed out of them in the last year. Under the background of China preparing its unified national ETS, analyzing the trading behaviour of market participants and the potential risk of their behaviour can provide several enlightenments to design market mechanism. |
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| Keywords: | emission trading transaction log micro trading behaviour emitting companies financial companies |
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