| 澜沧江和怒江流域的气候变化及其对径流的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘苏峡 丁文浩 莫兴国 王盛 刘昌明 罗贤 何大明 Sagar Ratna Bajracharya Arun Bhakta Shrestha Nand Kishor Agrawal.澜沧江和怒江流域的气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):356-365. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘苏峡 丁文浩 莫兴国 王盛 刘昌明 罗贤 何大明 Sagar Ratna Bajracharya Arun Bhakta Shrestha Nand Kishor Agrawal |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，北京 100101；
2 中国科学院大学资环学院/中丹学院，北京 100049；
3 云南大学，昆明 650091；
4 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development，Kathmandu 100023，Nepal |
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| 基金项目： | 天文与地球运动因子对气候变化的响应研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用VIP（Vegetation Interface Processes）模型和HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型，模拟分析了1957-2012年澜沧江和怒江流域（简称两江流域）水资源量的演变。根据CMIP5 RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预测，模拟了2030年代和2050年代流域水资源的变化。研究发现，过去50年间，两江流域的气温都呈升高趋势，但海拔较高的上游地区升幅大于下游。年总降水量的变化趋势不明显，但春季降水增加趋势明显。两江流域年总水资源量为650亿～ 850亿m3，水资源总量长期变化趋势不明显，其中澜沧江的波动性（1.884，最大与最小之比）大于怒江。空间上水资源量呈现北低－南高的格局。在未来，两江流域气温仍呈增加趋势，降水呈增加趋势，径流呈增加趋势，空间变异性趋小，但较强的季节性变化对水资源安全仍具有较大的挑战性。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流 气温 降水 VIP模型 HIMS模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-10-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-02-06 |
Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff in Lancang and Nujiang River Basins |
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| Liu Suxia,Ding Wenhao,Mo Xingguo,Wang Sheng,Liu Changming,Luo Xian,He Daming,Sagar Ratna Bajracharya,Arun Bhakta Shrestha,Nand Kishor Agrawal.Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff in Lancang and Nujiang River Basins[J].Advances in Climate Change,2017,13(4):356-365. |
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| Authors: | Liu Suxia Ding Wenhao Mo Xingguo Wang Sheng Liu Changming Luo Xian He Daming Sagar Ratna Bajracharya Arun Bhakta Shrestha Nand Kishor Agrawal |
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| Abstract: | The VIP eco-hydrological model and HIMS model were used to simulate hydrological processes from 1957 to 2012. Based on the ensemble projections of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff in the two basins were predicted. The results show that in the past 50 years air temperatures in the two basins were continually increasing and the rates over the upstream plateau were higher than the lower downstream. The tendency of annual precipitation was not significant, while the precipitation in spring season was increasing. The total water resources were around 65 billion to 85 billion m3 and no noticeable tendency was detected. Spatially, the water resources kept the pattern of “higher in south and lower in north”. The variability of water resources in Lancang River was more significant than that of Nujiang River. In the future climate scenarios, it will become warmer and wetter, the runoff will increase with lower spatial variability. Being with high seasonal variability, there will still be challenges in the water resources security over the whole basins. |
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| Keywords: | runoff temperature precipitation VIP eco-hydrological model HIMS model |
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