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气候变化对石羊河流域重点治理规划的影响
引用本文:王忠静,郑航,任国玉,赵建世.气候变化对石羊河流域重点治理规划的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(6):330-335.
作者姓名:王忠静  郑航  任国玉  赵建世
作者单位:1. 清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京,100084
2. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京,100081
基金项目:国家发展和改革委员会中英合作项目"中国东方和西方:给中国的水利部门建立一套适应性筛选工具"资助
摘    要: 根据IPCC全球气候变化情景,分析了石羊河流域未来可能气候变化趋势及其对流域河川径流量的影响。利用宏观经济水资源模型,研究了不同径流变化情景对石羊河流域治理规划效果的影响。结果表明:若石羊河流域未来径流量减少15%,对流域现状发展模式和治理模式经济影响将分别为29.8%和7.2%。石羊河综合治理可提高流域应对气候变化风险的能力,减小气候变化对流域社会经济的影响。

关 键 词:石羊河流域  流域治理  气候变化  影响
收稿时间:2008-04-09

Impacts of Climate Change on the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin
Wang Zhongjing,Zheng Hang,Ren Guoyu,Zhao Jianshi.Impacts of Climate Change on the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change,2008,4(6):330-335.
Authors:Wang Zhongjing  Zheng Hang  Ren Guoyu  Zhao Jianshi
Institution:School of Civil Engineering,Tsinghua University National Climate Center
Abstract:The Shiyang River Basin (SRB) Comprehensive Restoration Plan is a key strategy for protecting Minqin from desertification. Based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the trends of future climate changes and their impacts on the runoff of the SRB were analyzed. A water resource macroeconomic model was used to investigate the impacts of different runoff change scenarios on the SRB plan. It shows that if the runoff in the SRB reduces 15% in the future, the economic development (GDP) in present mode and in the restoration mode will be 29.8% and 7.2% lower than the normal, respectively. The comprehensive restoration of the SRB could enhance the capacity of resisting climate change risks, and mitigate climate change impacts on the socio-economy.
Keywords:Shiyang River basin  river basin governance  climate change  impacts
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