| 21世纪中国极端降水事件预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 江志红,丁裕国,陈威霖.21世纪中国极端降水事件预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4):202-207. |
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| 作者姓名： | 江志红 丁裕国 陈威霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;江苏省重点实验室基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 摘 要：全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的变化一直受到广泛关注，本文从观测、理论及模拟预估等方面对近十多年来国内外极端降水气候事件的研究作一综述，并给出IPCC第四次评估报告对我国21世纪极端降水指数变化的预估结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端降水事件 模式模拟 极值分析 预估 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-1719（2007）04-0202-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-1-4 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-04 |
Projection of Precipitation Extremes for the 21st Century over China |
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| Jiang Zhihong,Ding Yuguo,Chen Weilin.Projection of Precipitation Extremes for the 21st Century over China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2007,3(4):202-207. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Zhihong Ding Yuguo Chen Weilin |
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| Abstract: | Projections of change in precipitation extremes under global warming have drawn much attention abroad. In this paper, recent progresses in studies on precipitation extremes at home and abroad are summarized through the various aspects of observation, theory, simulations and projections. The projected changes in precipitation extremes derived from the five GCMs contributing to the IPCC AR4 over China in the 21st century are also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation extremes model simulations extreme value distribution projections |
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